Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 10.13x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 13.35x, against a typical 5.81x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $62,471.91 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 1.08% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.51% of its price, against 0.97% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 3 November 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 10.13x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the November 2021 Federal Reserve decision that left the target range unchanged at 0.00-0.25 percent. Volatility reached 10.13x the level of an ordinary quarter-hour that day, more than twice the 4.29x median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded 13.35x against a typical 5.81x. The move stood out because decisions that held rates have produced a lower median volatility ratio of 3.31x since 2021.
Price action began at $62,471.91. The market showed no net change fifteen minutes after the statement, then rose 1.08 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range widened to 4.51 percent of spot in that hour, compared with 0.97 percent in the preceding hour. This outcome exceeded the median volatility seen in prior hold decisions even though the release contained no shift in policy stance. Traders reviewing the record may note that rate-hold announcements have on average generated smaller moves than changes, yet individual releases can still produce outsized volatility when market positioning or surrounding conditions differ.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
63,038.04Close
62,376.8224h Change
-661.22 (-1.06%)24h High
63,500.0024h Low
60,382.7624h Volume
42,298 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
3rd November, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 62549.62 | 62562.68 | 62424.55 | 62471.00 | -0.13% | 0.22% | 30 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 62484.96 | 60382.76 | 61069.58 | -2.30% | 3.36% | 1,891 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62347.46 | 62562.68 | 62328.27 | 62471.00 | 0.20% | 0.37% | 119 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 62484.96 | 60382.76 | 61680.14 | -1.28% | 3.36% | 3,109 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62331.09 | 62562.68 | 62279.93 | 62471.00 | 0.22% | 0.45% | 182 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 62484.96 | 60382.76 | 61894.33 | -0.93% | 3.36% | 3,727 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62480.01 | 62562.68 | 62279.93 | 62471.00 | -0.01% | 0.45% | 286 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 62704.08 | 60382.76 | 62491.56 | 0.03% | 3.70% | 4,447 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62635.76 | 62635.77 | 62279.93 | 62471.00 | -0.26% | 0.57% | 586 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 62704.08 | 60382.76 | 62161.74 | -0.50% | 3.70% | 5,092 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 62136.52 | 62669.49 | 62063.00 | 62471.00 | 0.54% | 0.97% | 1,464 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 63199.89 | 60382.76 | 63149.04 | 1.07% | 4.46% | 6,697 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62189.99 | 62669.49 | 61969.69 | 62471.00 | 0.45% | 1.12% | 3,307 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 63333.00 | 60382.76 | 62800.00 | 0.52% | 4.66% | 8,550 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61821.07 | 62669.49 | 61579.57 | 62471.00 | 1.04% | 1.74% | 7,050 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 63333.00 | 60382.76 | 63107.71 | 1.01% | 4.66% | 11,266 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63107.29 | 63133.99 | 61579.57 | 62471.00 | -1.02% | 2.46% | 13,619 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 63333.00 | 60382.76 | 62896.48 | 0.68% | 4.66% | 13,403 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63038.04 | 63500.00 | 61645.00 | 61821.07 | -1.97% | 2.92% | 14,718 BTC |
| During | 61821.07 | 63333.00 | 60382.76 | 63107.71 | 2.04% | 4.66% | 18,316 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63038.04 | 63500.00 | 61579.57 | 62471.00 | -0.91% | 3.02% | 21,768 BTC |
| During | 62471.91 | 63333.00 | 60382.76 | 62376.82 | -0.15% | 4.66% | 20,530 BTC |
