Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 26 January 2022 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $37,961.15 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.2% lower, and an hour later 1% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.24% of its price, against 1.94% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.06x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.95x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 5.06x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds target range at 0.00 to 0.25 percent. The volatility ratio of 5.06x edged above the 4.29x median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded more noticeably, reaching 8.95x against the event's typical 5.81x.
The price opened the window at $37,961.15, declining 0.2 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 1 percent after sixty minutes. Its high-to-low range widened to 4.24 percent of spot in the hour after the release, compared with 1.94 percent in the hour before.
Rate-hold announcements have produced a lower median volatility ratio of 3.31x since 2021, yet this release exceeded that benchmark. The outcome illustrates that even decisions aligned with the prevailing policy stance can generate volatility above the historical pattern for holds.
Traders reviewing upcoming meetings may therefore weigh the specific circumstances of each statement rather than assume a uniform response based solely on whether the rate changes.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
37,288.56Close
36,139.0924h Change
-1149.47 (-3.18%)24h High
38,919.9824h Low
35,507.0124h Volume
73,969 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
26th January, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 37969.54 | 38000.00 | 37907.15 | 37961.15 | -0.02% | 0.24% | 28 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38500.00 | 37887.83 | 38165.33 | 0.53% | 1.59% | 606 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38178.17 | 38189.59 | 37789.76 | 37961.15 | -0.57% | 1.05% | 378 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38794.99 | 37887.83 | 38619.55 | 1.70% | 2.34% | 2,321 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 37723.77 | 38300.00 | 37709.50 | 37961.15 | 0.63% | 1.54% | 1,075 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 37887.83 | 38836.54 | 2.25% | 2.65% | 3,660 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 37713.35 | 38300.00 | 37653.18 | 37961.15 | 0.65% | 1.69% | 1,190 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 37800.00 | 37886.78 | -0.20% | 2.88% | 5,090 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 37794.96 | 38300.00 | 37653.18 | 37961.15 | 0.44% | 1.69% | 1,512 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 37311.58 | 38223.01 | 0.69% | 4.13% | 8,585 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 38040.90 | 38300.00 | 37565.00 | 37961.15 | -0.21% | 1.92% | 3,545 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 37311.58 | 37579.90 | -1.01% | 4.13% | 12,244 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 38264.85 | 38380.01 | 37565.00 | 37961.15 | -0.80% | 2.12% | 5,463 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 36668.23 | 37015.05 | -2.56% | 5.79% | 18,426 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 38223.51 | 38380.01 | 37565.00 | 37961.15 | -0.69% | 2.12% | 10,632 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 36234.63 | 36509.40 | -3.98% | 6.90% | 23,682 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 37749.68 | 38499.00 | 37475.01 | 37961.15 | 0.56% | 2.66% | 18,002 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 36234.63 | 37004.43 | -2.59% | 6.90% | 27,442 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 37288.56 | 38499.00 | 37109.37 | 38223.52 | 2.45% | 3.61% | 20,212 BTC |
| During | 38223.51 | 38919.98 | 36234.63 | 36509.40 | -4.69% | 6.90% | 34,313 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 37288.56 | 38499.00 | 37109.37 | 37961.15 | 1.77% | 3.61% | 30,844 BTC |
| During | 37961.15 | 38919.98 | 35507.01 | 36139.09 | -5.04% | 8.77% | 43,125 BTC |
