Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 31 July 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $66,686.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.4% lower, and an hour later 0.24% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.89% of its price, against 0.8% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.01x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.10x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.01x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.50%. Bitcoin stood at $66,686.01 at the 2:00 PM EDT release. Fifteen minutes later the price was 0.4% lower and an hour later it was 0.24% lower. The high-to-low range in that hour reached 0.89% of the price, little changed from the 0.8% range recorded in the hour before.
Volume rose only 2.10x against the typical 5.81x. Decisions that changed the rate have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37x, while those that held it produced 3.31x. This release held the range, and its 2.01x ratio fell short even of that benchmark.
The outcome aligns with Clometrix's classification of the reaction as muted. A trader reviewing the record would note that holds have historically generated smaller moves than changes, yet this instance produced less movement still.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
66,175.53Close
64,303.9924h Change
-1871.54 (-2.91%)24h High
66,849.2424h Low
63,584.0024h Volume
27,695 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
31st July, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 66614.00 | 66688.01 | 66614.00 | 66686.00 | 0.11% | 0.11% | 11 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 66442.96 | 66442.97 | -0.37% | 0.44% | 120 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66727.88 | 66748.01 | 66601.00 | 66686.00 | -0.06% | 0.22% | 84 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 66434.00 | 66503.99 | -0.27% | 0.45% | 267 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66789.64 | 66836.30 | 66601.00 | 66686.00 | -0.16% | 0.35% | 149 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 66331.66 | 66388.01 | -0.45% | 0.60% | 369 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66774.00 | 66836.30 | 66601.00 | 66686.00 | -0.13% | 0.35% | 229 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 66300.00 | 66417.99 | -0.40% | 0.65% | 442 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66538.00 | 66836.30 | 66484.00 | 66686.00 | 0.22% | 0.53% | 452 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 66138.00 | 66198.01 | -0.74% | 0.89% | 730 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 66362.01 | 66836.30 | 66303.84 | 66686.00 | 0.49% | 0.80% | 716 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 66138.00 | 66527.99 | -0.24% | 0.89% | 1,237 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66379.99 | 66836.30 | 66287.87 | 66686.00 | 0.46% | 0.82% | 1,394 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 64957.14 | 65256.83 | -2.19% | 2.66% | 5,015 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66508.01 | 66836.30 | 65963.25 | 66686.00 | 0.27% | 1.31% | 3,881 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 64530.00 | 64978.00 | -2.63% | 3.30% | 8,516 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66094.01 | 66849.24 | 65963.25 | 66686.00 | 0.89% | 1.33% | 5,762 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 64530.00 | 64628.00 | -3.18% | 3.30% | 9,932 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66175.53 | 66849.24 | 65954.54 | 66508.00 | 0.50% | 1.34% | 5,281 BTC |
| During | 66508.01 | 66836.30 | 64530.00 | 64978.00 | -2.35% | 3.45% | 12,397 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 66175.53 | 66849.24 | 65954.54 | 66686.00 | 0.77% | 1.34% | 9,162 BTC |
| During | 66686.01 | 66733.99 | 63584.00 | 64303.99 | -3.70% | 4.72% | 18,533 BTC |
