Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 18 September 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, to 4.75–5.00%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $60,013.02 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.28% higher, and an hour later 1.03% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.6% of its price, against 1.27% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.44x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 14.36x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 5.44x compares with 5.37x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a contained advance after the Federal Open Market Committee cut its target range by 50 basis points to 4.75-5.00%. The price sat at $60,013.02 at the 2:00 PM release. Fifteen minutes later the gain stood at 0.28% and reached 1.03% after an hour, while the hourly high-to-low range widened to 2.6% from 1.27% beforehand. Volatility expanded to a 5.44x ratio against the 4.29x median recorded across 46 prior Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, and volume rose to 14.36x from the typical 5.81x.
The outcome tracked the historical distinction between rate changes and holds. Decisions that altered the target since 2021 have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18 releases, compared with 3.31x across the 28 that left rates unchanged. At 5.44x this release fell squarely in line with the rate-change cohort, which is why Clometrix recorded the reaction as ordinary for the event.
Traders reviewing the next Federal Reserve announcement can therefore treat the presence or absence of a rate adjustment itself as the more reliable signal for volatility magnitude. When policy moved, Bitcoin's response has consistently exceeded the levels seen on unchanged decisions, and the September outcome reinforced that pattern without exceeding it.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
60,241.07Close
61,990.4224h Change
1749.35 (2.82%)24h High
62,589.5224h Low
59,174.8024h Volume
40,745 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
18th September, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 59980.00 | 60025.43 | 59980.00 | 60013.01 | 0.06% | 0.08% | 54 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 60800.00 | 59759.84 | 60607.17 | 0.98% | 1.71% | 1,134 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 60100.00 | 60100.00 | 59921.10 | 60013.01 | -0.14% | 0.30% | 208 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61000.00 | 59759.84 | 60298.06 | 0.47% | 2.03% | 2,698 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 60005.95 | 60247.69 | 59921.10 | 60013.01 | 0.01% | 0.54% | 433 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61000.00 | 59759.84 | 60276.01 | 0.44% | 2.03% | 3,394 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 59972.01 | 60247.69 | 59918.01 | 60013.01 | 0.07% | 0.55% | 587 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61000.00 | 59759.84 | 60182.01 | 0.28% | 2.03% | 3,833 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 59790.52 | 60247.69 | 59772.00 | 60013.01 | 0.37% | 0.79% | 974 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61000.00 | 59759.84 | 60520.01 | 0.84% | 2.03% | 4,912 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 59915.26 | 60247.69 | 59485.45 | 60013.01 | 0.16% | 1.27% | 1,473 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61318.60 | 59759.84 | 60629.79 | 1.02% | 2.54% | 8,769 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 59429.19 | 60247.69 | 59174.80 | 60013.01 | 0.97% | 1.78% | 2,720 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61318.60 | 59759.84 | 60057.99 | 0.07% | 2.54% | 11,925 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 59508.50 | 60247.69 | 59174.80 | 60013.01 | 0.84% | 1.78% | 5,088 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61318.60 | 59473.68 | 60199.46 | 0.31% | 3.01% | 14,817 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 59846.00 | 60247.69 | 59174.80 | 60013.01 | 0.28% | 1.78% | 7,838 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 61786.24 | 59473.68 | 61759.99 | 2.83% | 3.74% | 17,896 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60241.07 | 60541.65 | 59308.61 | 59508.50 | -1.23% | 2.04% | 8,086 BTC |
| During | 59508.50 | 61318.60 | 59174.80 | 60199.46 | 1.15% | 3.50% | 19,905 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 60241.07 | 60541.65 | 59174.80 | 60013.01 | -0.38% | 2.26% | 13,173 BTC |
| During | 60013.02 | 62589.52 | 59473.68 | 61990.42 | 3.19% | 4.98% | 27,571 BTC |
