Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 12 June 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25–5.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $69,800.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.89% lower, and an hour later 1.39% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.77% of its price, against 0.53% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.84x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 9.82x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 4.84x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the June 12 Federal Reserve decision that left the target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The 4.84 times volatility ratio in the quarter hour after the 2:00 PM release stood only modestly above the 4.29 times median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate announcements since 2021. Price fell 0.89 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 1.39 percent within the hour, while the high-to-low span reached 1.77 percent against 0.53 percent in the prior hour.
Context Among Rate Holds
Releases that held rates steady have produced a lower median volatility ratio of 3.31 times since 2021. The stronger move on this occasion therefore exceeded the pattern typical for unchanged decisions. Volume expanded to 9.82 times normal levels, well above the 5.81 times median for the event, indicating that positioning around the accompanying projections contributed to the activity even without a policy shift.
Traders reviewing the record may note that Bitcoin volatility at these announcements has varied more with the presence of fresh economic projections than with the binary outcome of a rate change alone. The June 12 response illustrates that a hold can still generate above-median movement when market attention centers on forward guidance.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
67,243.21Close
67,604.0424h Change
360.83 (0.53%)24h High
69,999.0024h Low
66,969.9824h Volume
39,563 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
12th June, 2024, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 69801.53 | 69838.69 | 69791.34 | 69799.99 | 0.00% | 0.07% | 24 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 68800.00 | 69280.00 | -0.75% | 1.44% | 600 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 69830.00 | 69862.40 | 69764.02 | 69799.99 | -0.04% | 0.14% | 111 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 68800.00 | 69259.98 | -0.78% | 1.44% | 1,367 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 69649.99 | 69862.40 | 69649.99 | 69799.99 | 0.21% | 0.30% | 311 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 68800.00 | 69127.99 | -0.97% | 1.44% | 1,888 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 69664.02 | 69862.40 | 69610.00 | 69799.99 | 0.19% | 0.36% | 357 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 68800.00 | 69180.00 | -0.90% | 1.44% | 2,162 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 69657.13 | 69862.40 | 69565.00 | 69799.99 | 0.20% | 0.43% | 774 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 68800.00 | 69196.01 | -0.87% | 1.44% | 2,637 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 69616.01 | 69862.40 | 69492.00 | 69799.99 | 0.26% | 0.53% | 1,194 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 68575.00 | 68828.01 | -1.41% | 1.77% | 4,589 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 69734.00 | 69862.40 | 69289.50 | 69799.99 | 0.09% | 0.82% | 2,516 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 67250.00 | 67532.92 | -3.36% | 3.66% | 9,372 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 69320.01 | 69999.00 | 69289.50 | 69799.99 | 0.69% | 1.01% | 6,805 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 67250.00 | 68536.00 | -1.84% | 3.66% | 12,246 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67778.43 | 69999.00 | 67736.00 | 69799.99 | 2.90% | 3.23% | 14,920 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 67250.00 | 68263.99 | -2.25% | 3.66% | 13,262 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67243.21 | 69649.80 | 67229.78 | 69320.00 | 3.00% | 3.47% | 12,635 BTC |
| During | 69320.01 | 69999.00 | 67250.00 | 68536.00 | -1.14% | 3.93% | 19,051 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 67243.21 | 69999.00 | 67229.78 | 69799.99 | 3.66% | 3.96% | 19,440 BTC |
| During | 69800.00 | 69808.47 | 66969.98 | 67604.04 | -3.25% | 4.07% | 20,123 BTC |
