Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 4 May 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, to 0.75–1.00%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $38,985.31 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 1.62% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.1% of its price, against 1.13% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.35x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.56x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 4.35x compares with 5.37x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin showed an ordinary reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee decision that lifted the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 0.75-1.00 percent. The price sat at $38,985.31 at the 2:00 PM release, remained unchanged fifteen minutes later and rose 1.62 percent after an hour. Its hourly range expanded to 3.1 percent from 1.13 percent beforehand, producing a volatility ratio of 4.35x that sat just above the 4.29x median recorded across 46 prior Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 7.56x against a typical 5.81x.
The outcome proved milder than the record for rate-changing decisions would imply. Releases that altered the target have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37x since 2021, compared with 3.31x when the rate stayed unchanged.
Traders reviewing the next comparable meeting can note that a policy adjustment alone does not guarantee an outsized move. The median reaction across the full set of 46 releases remains 4.29x, so the magnitude observed here aligns with the event's established pattern rather than marking a departure from it.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
38,091.40Close
39,602.6524h Change
1511.25 (3.82%)24h High
40,023.7724h Low
38,082.8524h Volume
64,097 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
4th May, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 39018.11 | 39077.15 | 38958.39 | 38985.30 | -0.08% | 0.30% | 114 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 39300.00 | 38832.78 | 39140.00 | 0.40% | 1.19% | 637 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38880.12 | 39170.00 | 38861.28 | 38985.30 | 0.27% | 0.79% | 696 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 39300.00 | 38832.78 | 39033.18 | 0.12% | 1.19% | 1,979 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38840.01 | 39170.00 | 38832.26 | 38985.30 | 0.37% | 0.86% | 821 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 39300.00 | 38832.78 | 38970.69 | -0.04% | 1.19% | 2,819 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38924.89 | 39170.00 | 38811.28 | 38985.30 | 0.15% | 0.92% | 1,040 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 39300.00 | 38832.78 | 38974.03 | -0.03% | 1.19% | 3,247 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 38956.11 | 39170.00 | 38811.28 | 38985.30 | 0.07% | 0.92% | 1,469 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 39300.00 | 38700.00 | 38976.04 | -0.02% | 1.53% | 4,456 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 39189.99 | 39249.99 | 38811.28 | 38985.30 | -0.53% | 1.12% | 2,995 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 39800.00 | 38590.97 | 39617.08 | 1.59% | 3.04% | 12,007 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 38973.20 | 39475.00 | 38811.28 | 38985.30 | 0.03% | 1.68% | 6,670 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 40023.77 | 38590.97 | 39859.22 | 2.19% | 3.58% | 17,125 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 38712.05 | 39475.00 | 38658.96 | 38985.30 | 0.70% | 2.07% | 11,379 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 40023.77 | 38590.97 | 39741.08 | 1.90% | 3.58% | 19,670 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39002.31 | 39475.00 | 38658.96 | 38985.30 | -0.04% | 2.07% | 16,397 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 40023.77 | 38590.97 | 39690.00 | 1.78% | 3.58% | 22,384 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 38091.40 | 39182.00 | 38082.85 | 38712.06 | 1.60% | 2.81% | 22,972 BTC |
| During | 38712.05 | 40023.77 | 38590.97 | 39741.08 | 2.59% | 3.58% | 31,049 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 38091.40 | 39475.00 | 38082.85 | 38985.30 | 2.29% | 3.53% | 34,351 BTC |
| During | 38985.31 | 40023.77 | 38590.97 | 39602.65 | 1.56% | 3.58% | 29,746 BTC |
