Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.06x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.34x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $21,117.26 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.9% lower, and an hour later 2% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 10.64% of its price, against 4.77% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 15 June 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, to 1.50–1.75%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 6.06x compares with 5.37x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the June 2022 Federal Open Market Committee decision, posting a volatility ratio of 6.06x against the 4.29x median recorded across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 6.34x its typical level for the quarter hour, above the 5.81x benchmark for the event. The move aligned with the release itself rather than earlier data prints that day, which left Bitcoin ranges largely unchanged.
The 75 basis point increase to the 1.50 to 1.75 percent target range placed the announcement among the rate-change subset that has historically produced larger swings. Those 18 instances carried a median volatility ratio of 5.37x, compared with 3.31x when rates stayed on hold. At 6.06x, the observed response sat close to the rate-change median and therefore matched the pattern its circumstances would suggest.
Price movement began with a 2.9 percent decline in the first fifteen minutes from the $21,117.26 level, then reversed to finish 2 percent higher after sixty minutes. The hour after the release recorded a 10.64 percent high-to-low range, more than double the 4.77 percent span seen in the preceding hour.
Traders reviewing future Federal Open Market Committee meetings can note that actual policy adjustments have coincided with elevated volatility ratios more often than unchanged targets. The record does not indicate how large any single future move will be, yet it shows that the distinction between rate changes and holds remains a useful reference point when sizing exposure around the 2:00 PM statement.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
21,226.31Close
21,941.9724h Change
715.66 (3.26%)24h High
22,995.7324h Low
20,111.6224h Volume
185,447 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
15th June, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 21030.47 | 21242.56 | 20988.00 | 21117.26 | 0.41% | 1.20% | 194 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 21557.95 | 20618.96 | 21075.06 | -0.20% | 4.36% | 1,298 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 21256.75 | 21507.04 | 20924.94 | 21117.26 | -0.66% | 2.71% | 1,626 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 21557.95 | 20563.79 | 20730.11 | -1.87% | 4.61% | 4,311 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 20701.24 | 21507.04 | 20687.34 | 21117.26 | 1.97% | 3.81% | 2,592 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 21557.95 | 20300.00 | 20420.58 | -3.41% | 5.84% | 7,186 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 20730.01 | 21507.04 | 20685.10 | 21117.26 | 1.83% | 3.82% | 3,106 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 21557.95 | 20250.00 | 20505.16 | -2.99% | 6.07% | 9,428 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 20648.06 | 21507.04 | 20500.00 | 21117.26 | 2.22% | 4.68% | 5,147 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 21557.95 | 20250.00 | 20752.47 | -1.76% | 6.07% | 12,731 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 20723.00 | 21507.04 | 20500.00 | 21117.26 | 1.87% | 4.68% | 8,611 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 22496.52 | 20250.00 | 21540.07 | 1.96% | 9.99% | 26,390 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21419.09 | 21545.60 | 20500.00 | 21117.26 | -1.43% | 4.85% | 15,258 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 22496.52 | 20250.00 | 21632.04 | 2.38% | 9.99% | 35,020 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21561.49 | 21773.34 | 20500.00 | 21117.26 | -2.10% | 5.85% | 25,199 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 22496.52 | 20250.00 | 22214.02 | 4.94% | 9.99% | 42,701 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21177.04 | 21798.95 | 20500.00 | 21117.26 | -0.28% | 5.96% | 41,357 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 22800.00 | 20250.00 | 22583.72 | 6.49% | 11.18% | 53,771 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21226.31 | 21798.95 | 20111.62 | 21561.50 | 1.55% | 7.74% | 85,959 BTC |
| During | 21561.49 | 22496.52 | 20250.00 | 22214.02 | 2.94% | 9.99% | 67,900 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 21226.31 | 21798.95 | 20111.62 | 21117.26 | -0.52% | 7.74% | 111,159 BTC |
| During | 21117.26 | 22995.73 | 20250.00 | 21941.97 | 3.76% | 11.94% | 74,289 BTC |
