Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 16 March 2022 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 0.25–0.50%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $40,426.70 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.7% lower, and an hour later 1.23% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.11% of its price, against 1.55% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.01x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 12.19x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one changed the rate. Its own ratio of 5.01x compares with 5.37x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin declined 1.7 percent in the fifteen minutes after the March 2022 Federal Open Market Committee decision and 1.23 percent after one hour. Its hourly range widened to 3.11 percent from 1.55 percent beforehand. The volatility ratio reached 5.01 times the quiet-quarter baseline, slightly above the 4.29 times median recorded across all forty-six Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021. Volume expanded 12.19 times against a typical 5.81 times.
This outcome fits the pattern for announcements that change the target range. Rate-setting decisions have produced a median volatility ratio of 5.37 times since 2021, while holds have produced 3.31 times. The 5.01 times reading here sits close to the rate-change benchmark and therefore registers as ordinary for the event.
Traders reviewing the record will note that the size of the move aligned with the fact of a policy shift rather than the magnitude of any surprise. The same distinction has held across the sample: decisions that alter rates have consistently generated larger reactions than those that leave policy unchanged.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
39,321.24Close
41,062.3124h Change
1741.07 (4.24%)24h High
41,478.8224h Low
39,257.8924h Volume
68,544 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
16th March, 2022, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 40379.01 | 40435.57 | 40367.00 | 40426.71 | 0.12% | 0.17% | 56 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 40426.71 | 39784.21 | 40057.25 | -0.92% | 1.59% | 1,154 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 40377.98 | 40435.57 | 40180.58 | 40426.71 | 0.12% | 0.63% | 336 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 40567.53 | 39784.21 | 39908.60 | -1.30% | 1.93% | 3,387 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 40491.07 | 40516.56 | 40180.58 | 40426.71 | -0.16% | 0.83% | 569 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 40567.53 | 39560.00 | 39760.74 | -1.67% | 2.48% | 4,961 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 40500.02 | 40539.32 | 40180.58 | 40426.71 | -0.18% | 0.88% | 675 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 40567.53 | 39560.00 | 39740.65 | -1.73% | 2.48% | 5,937 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 40358.00 | 40690.00 | 40180.58 | 40426.71 | 0.17% | 1.25% | 1,371 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 40567.53 | 39560.00 | 39726.51 | -1.76% | 2.48% | 7,148 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 40301.01 | 40690.00 | 40064.11 | 40426.71 | 0.31% | 1.54% | 2,394 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 40567.53 | 39311.53 | 39930.50 | -1.24% | 3.10% | 11,173 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40611.67 | 40761.55 | 40041.40 | 40426.71 | -0.46% | 1.77% | 6,757 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 40950.00 | 39311.53 | 40880.17 | 1.11% | 4.00% | 16,967 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40633.83 | 41194.60 | 40041.40 | 40426.71 | -0.51% | 2.80% | 14,179 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 41471.36 | 39311.53 | 41102.42 | 1.64% | 5.21% | 22,964 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 40521.60 | 41194.60 | 40041.40 | 40426.71 | -0.23% | 2.80% | 18,441 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 41471.36 | 39311.53 | 41114.00 | 1.67% | 5.21% | 25,551 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39321.24 | 40731.30 | 39257.89 | 40633.84 | 3.23% | 3.62% | 20,052 BTC |
| During | 40633.83 | 41471.36 | 39311.53 | 41102.42 | 1.14% | 5.21% | 37,143 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 39321.24 | 41194.60 | 39257.89 | 40426.71 | 2.73% | 4.70% | 34,231 BTC |
| During | 40426.70 | 41478.82 | 39311.53 | 41062.31 | 1.55% | 5.23% | 34,313 BTC |
