Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.11x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.86x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $66,107.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.22% lower, and an hour later 0.9% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.98% of its price, against 0.59% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 17 June 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 7.11x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's June 2026 decision to hold the federal funds rate target range at 3.50 to 3.75%. Volatility reached 7.11x in the quarter hour after the 2:00 PM release, well above the 4.29x median recorded across 46 similar announcements since 2021. Volume expanded to 7.86x against the event's typical 5.81x.
Price action showed an immediate 1.22% decline within fifteen minutes that extended to 0.9% lower after one hour. The high-to-low range widened to 1.98% of spot in the post-release hour from 0.59% beforehand. Bitcoin opened the interval at $66,107.99.
Rate-hold announcements have produced a median volatility ratio of only 3.31x since 2021, yet this release exceeded that benchmark by a wide margin. The result also surpassed the 5.37x median seen when the committee has changed rates.
Traders monitoring upcoming decisions may therefore weigh the full statement package, including projections and the dot plot, when assessing potential volatility even in the absence of a policy shift.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
65,836.30Close
63,994.0024h Change
-1842.30 (-2.88%)24h High
66,445.9324h Low
63,696.2924h Volume
18,700 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
17th June, 2026, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 66035.89 | 66108.00 | 66035.88 | 66104.08 | 0.10% | 0.11% | 8 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 65414.00 | 65459.37 | -0.99% | 1.05% | 338 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 66104.66 | 66191.98 | 66022.43 | 66104.08 | 0.00% | 0.26% | 73 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 65230.00 | 65248.30 | -1.32% | 1.33% | 544 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 65855.99 | 66191.98 | 65852.00 | 66104.08 | 0.38% | 0.51% | 132 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 64800.00 | 65478.02 | -0.96% | 1.98% | 968 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 65858.66 | 66191.98 | 65823.34 | 66104.08 | 0.37% | 0.56% | 165 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 64800.00 | 65301.52 | -1.23% | 1.98% | 1,061 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 65973.99 | 66191.98 | 65823.34 | 66104.08 | 0.20% | 0.56% | 236 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 64800.00 | 65404.14 | -1.08% | 1.98% | 1,260 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 65864.13 | 66191.98 | 65800.00 | 66104.08 | 0.36% | 0.59% | 378 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 64800.00 | 65516.00 | -0.90% | 1.98% | 2,243 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 65751.99 | 66445.93 | 65722.00 | 66104.08 | 0.53% | 1.09% | 1,799 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 63998.35 | 64301.85 | -2.81% | 3.19% | 4,416 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 65278.00 | 66445.93 | 64772.72 | 66104.08 | 1.25% | 2.52% | 3,771 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 63998.35 | 64257.77 | -2.88% | 3.19% | 5,379 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 64810.01 | 66445.93 | 64590.53 | 66104.08 | 1.96% | 2.79% | 5,291 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 63915.77 | 64509.40 | -2.48% | 3.32% | 6,161 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 65836.30 | 65896.45 | 64565.00 | 65278.00 | -0.86% | 2.02% | 5,687 BTC |
| During | 65278.00 | 66445.93 | 63998.35 | 64257.77 | -1.59% | 3.68% | 9,150 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 65836.30 | 66445.93 | 64565.00 | 66104.08 | 0.41% | 2.83% | 9,458 BTC |
| During | 66107.99 | 66107.99 | 63696.29 | 63994.00 | -3.30% | 3.65% | 9,242 BTC |
