Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.65x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.84x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $76,184.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.3% lower, and an hour later 0.88% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.76% of its price, against 0.5% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 29 April 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 7.65x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin posted a strong reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to hold rates steady. Volatility reached 7.65 times the typical quarter-hour level, well above the 4.29x median recorded across 46 prior releases since 2021. Volume expanded 8.84x against a usual 5.81x. The price fell 1.3 percent in the first fifteen minutes from its $76,184.00 level and stood 0.88 percent lower after an hour, with the hourly range widening to 1.76 percent from 0.5 percent beforehand.
Outsize Move on a Hold
Rate holds have produced a median volatility ratio of only 3.31x in the same period, compared with 5.37x when the target range changed. This release exceeded even the higher benchmark for changes, reaching 7.65x. Traders preparing for the next similar announcement can note that the event's historical record includes both muted and elevated responses depending on context, without a fixed pattern that guarantees repetition.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
77,288.39Close
75,600.0924h Change
-1688.30 (-2.23%)24h High
77,904.9324h Low
74,937.5224h Volume
17,852 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
29th April, 2026, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 76073.49 | 76184.01 | 76073.49 | 76184.01 | 0.15% | 0.15% | 13 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 76088.01 | 76103.73 | -0.11% | 0.24% | 36 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 75981.77 | 76184.01 | 75940.12 | 76184.01 | 0.27% | 0.32% | 47 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 75920.18 | 75920.19 | -0.35% | 0.46% | 115 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 76029.99 | 76184.01 | 75940.12 | 76184.01 | 0.20% | 0.32% | 82 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 75000.00 | 75020.30 | -1.55% | 1.67% | 613 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 76018.33 | 76184.01 | 75940.12 | 76184.01 | 0.22% | 0.32% | 126 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 74937.52 | 75192.52 | -1.32% | 1.75% | 1,112 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 75891.40 | 76184.01 | 75881.59 | 76184.01 | 0.38% | 0.40% | 218 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 74937.52 | 75150.37 | -1.38% | 1.75% | 1,443 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 75803.55 | 76184.01 | 75803.55 | 76184.01 | 0.50% | 0.50% | 550 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 74937.52 | 75513.91 | -0.89% | 1.75% | 1,927 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 75924.24 | 76184.01 | 75696.13 | 76184.01 | 0.34% | 0.64% | 1,571 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 74937.52 | 75563.86 | -0.82% | 1.75% | 2,391 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 76783.42 | 76927.69 | 75696.13 | 76184.01 | -0.79% | 1.60% | 4,057 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 74937.52 | 75933.93 | -0.33% | 1.75% | 3,330 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 77590.04 | 77596.39 | 75696.13 | 76184.01 | -1.85% | 2.45% | 6,835 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76274.80 | 74937.52 | 75780.00 | -0.53% | 1.75% | 3,882 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 77288.39 | 77904.93 | 76425.62 | 76783.43 | -0.66% | 1.90% | 7,381 BTC |
| During | 76783.42 | 76927.69 | 74937.52 | 75933.93 | -1.12% | 2.59% | 7,387 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 77288.39 | 77904.93 | 75696.13 | 76184.01 | -1.45% | 2.84% | 11,438 BTC |
| During | 76184.00 | 76473.26 | 74937.52 | 75600.09 | -0.77% | 2.01% | 6,414 BTC |
