Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 29 July 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $64,269.83 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.1% higher, and an hour later 0.36% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.39% of its price, against 0.9% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.62x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.27x, against a typical 5.81x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 2.62x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin posted a muted reaction to the Federal Reserve holding its target range at 3.50-3.75%. Price advanced 0.1% in the first fifteen minutes and 0.36% after one hour, while the hourly high-low range reached 1.39% against 0.9% beforehand.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 2.62x in the quarter hour of the release, below the 4.29x median for Fed Interest Rate decisions since 2021 and the 3.31x median observed across prior holds. Volume expanded 4.27x versus the event typical of 5.81x. The outcome therefore remained subdued even by the standards of announcements that left rates unchanged.
Across the full set of 46 releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio stands at 4.29x, with changes in the target range producing a higher 5.37x median. A trader reviewing upcoming statements may note that holds have consistently coincided with more contained Bitcoin moves than adjustments, without assuming any particular magnitude for the next instance.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
64,067.32Close
64,033.8924h Change
-33.43 (-0.05%)24h High
64,744.8124h Low
63,267.3424h Volume
17,213 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
29th July, 2026, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 64209.99 | 64286.71 | 64191.33 | 64269.83 | 0.09% | 0.15% | 15 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 64256.00 | 64495.63 | 0.35% | 0.61% | 339 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 64194.07 | 64286.71 | 64176.95 | 64269.83 | 0.12% | 0.17% | 45 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 64256.00 | 64424.00 | 0.24% | 0.61% | 502 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 63992.90 | 64286.71 | 63992.90 | 64269.83 | 0.43% | 0.46% | 120 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 64256.00 | 64433.99 | 0.25% | 0.61% | 583 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 63966.54 | 64286.71 | 63934.00 | 64269.83 | 0.47% | 0.55% | 150 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 64256.00 | 64336.00 | 0.10% | 0.61% | 637 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 63756.17 | 64286.71 | 63731.01 | 64269.83 | 0.80% | 0.86% | 254 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 63992.00 | 64098.00 | -0.27% | 1.02% | 873 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 63808.33 | 64286.71 | 63709.19 | 64269.83 | 0.72% | 0.90% | 486 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 63758.00 | 64501.52 | 0.36% | 1.38% | 1,897 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 63964.01 | 64286.71 | 63624.15 | 64269.83 | 0.48% | 1.03% | 1,244 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 63511.00 | 63589.46 | -1.07% | 1.76% | 3,350 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 64664.69 | 64718.87 | 63624.15 | 64269.83 | -0.61% | 1.69% | 2,708 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 63267.34 | 63860.00 | -0.64% | 2.14% | 4,909 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 64507.53 | 64718.87 | 63624.15 | 64269.83 | -0.37% | 1.69% | 3,980 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 63267.34 | 63984.28 | -0.45% | 2.14% | 5,946 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 64067.32 | 64744.81 | 64026.64 | 64664.70 | 0.92% | 1.11% | 4,531 BTC |
| During | 64664.69 | 64718.87 | 63267.34 | 63860.00 | -1.26% | 2.24% | 7,618 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 64067.32 | 64744.81 | 63624.15 | 64269.83 | 0.32% | 1.73% | 7,240 BTC |
| During | 64269.83 | 64648.79 | 63267.34 | 64033.89 | -0.37% | 2.14% | 9,974 BTC |
