The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 28 October 2026 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $80,860.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.19% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.77% of its price, against 0.61% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.11x, against 4.24x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.88x, against a typical 5.76x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.30x across 29. This one held it. Its own ratio of 3.11x compares with 3.30x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 47 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.24x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on 28 October 2026, posting a volatility ratio of 3.11x against the 4.29x median recorded across prior releases since 2021. The outcome matched Clometrix's classification for this event type and aligned with the broader historical pattern for decisions that left rates unchanged.
Bitcoin sat at $80,860.01 at the 2:00 PM release. It showed no change fifteen minutes later and advanced 0.19 percent after one hour. The hourly high-to-low range widened to 0.77 percent from 0.61 percent beforehand, while trading volume rose 4.88x against a typical 5.81x.
Since 2021, rate-hold announcements have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.31x across 28 cases, below the 5.37x median seen when rates moved. The overall median across 47 releases stands at 4.24x. This release therefore tracked the typical magnitude for a hold, even with the statement and press conference arriving without projections or a dot plot.
Traders reviewing the next comparable announcement may observe that the record shows holds tend to generate smaller moves than rate changes, though individual outcomes still vary around those medians.
How it compares
Across 47 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 4.24x. This one was 0.74 times the usual.
Thin line: Fed Interest Rate's usual, 4.24x. Thick line: this release, 3.11x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 81084.12 | 80721.62 | 80896.01 | 0.04% | 0.45% | 0.05% | 269 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 81185.69 | 80721.62 | 80958.56 | 0.12% | 0.57% | 0.19% | 432 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 81185.69 | 80721.62 | 80779.76 | -0.10% | 0.57% | 0.21% | 508 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 81185.69 | 80721.62 | 80832.00 | -0.03% | 0.57% | 0.31% | 580 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 81185.69 | 80704.86 | 80946.01 | 0.11% | 0.59% | 0.49% | 750 BTC |
| 1 hour | 81327.24 | 80704.86 | 81011.68 | 0.19% | 0.77% | 0.61% | 1,559 BTC |
| 2 hours | 81621.17 | 80704.86 | 81585.39 | 0.89% | 1.12% | 0.70% | 2,544 BTC |
| 4 hours | 81788.56 | 80704.86 | 81370.01 | 0.63% | 1.33% | 0.70% | 3,875 BTC |
| 6 hours | 81788.56 | 80704.86 | 81343.50 | 0.59% | 1.33% | 1.16% | 4,668 BTC |
| 8 hours | 81788.56 | 80400.00 | 81370.01 | 0.77% | 1.70% | 1.74% | 5,840 BTC |
| 12 hours | 81788.56 | 79710.00 | 80234.14 | -0.78% | 2.54% | 1.74% | 7,950 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Fed Interest Rate | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.11x | 4.24x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 2.39x | 4.08x | Muted |
| XRP | Not measured | 3.61x | - |
| BNB | 1.93x | 3.05x | Muted |
| Solana | 2.91x | 3.11x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 2.54x | 3.69x | Muted |
| TRON | 1.67x | 2.50x | Muted |
| Cardano | 2.55x | 3.31x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 2.44x | 3.50x | Muted |
| Sui | 4.16x | 2.91x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.18x | 3.19x | Ordinary |
| Hedera | 2.93x | 2.99x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 2.02x | 3.47x | Muted |
| Litecoin | 2.41x | 3.37x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 1.01x | 2.75x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.99x | 3.45x | Muted |
| Uniswap | 2.53x | 3.05x | Ordinary |
| Polkadot | 3.24x | 3.16x | Ordinary |
| Aave | 3.44x | 3.41x | Ordinary |
| Bittensor | 3.00x | 2.94x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 3.01x | 3.33x | Ordinary |
| Aptos | 2.84x | 2.93x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 3.97x | 3.24x | Ordinary |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.84x | 2.93x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 3.55x | 4.03x | Ordinary |
What is the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.Questions about this page
Is 3.11x a lot?
For a Fed Interest Rate release it is ordinary: the usual is 4.24x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Fed Interest Rate do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Fed Interest Rate releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Why does Bitcoin move when US economic data comes out?
Bitcoin often shows larger price swings in the minutes after major US economic reports. Those reports change expectations about interest rates, inflation and economic growth. Clometrix measures the size of the resulting price swings, not their direction. Tier 1 reports such as CPI, Core CPI and Core Inflation have a median Bitcoin price swing of 4.29x since 2021.
Which US economic reports move crypto the most?
The reports with the largest median Bitcoin price swings since 2021 are CPI, Core CPI and Core Inflation at 4.29x, the Fed Interest Rate at 4.24x, and Non-Farm Payrolls together with Non-Farm Private Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate at 3.20x. These are Tier 1. Clometrix sets tiers from the median Bitcoin price swing since 2021. Tier 1 means at least 3 times an ordinary 15 minutes.
Does Ethereum react to US data the same way Bitcoin does?
Ethereum's median price swings since 2021 are close to Bitcoin's for most reports. For CPI, Core CPI and Core Inflation the median is 4.37x for Ethereum and 4.29x for Bitcoin. For the Fed Interest Rate it is 4.08x versus 4.24x.
What time does the Fed announce its interest rate decision?
The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET. Clometrix measures the 15 minutes from that statement. The median Bitcoin price swing for the Fed Interest Rate since 2021 is 4.24x across 47 releases. Clometrix shows each release in the reader's own time zone.
Does Clometrix measure the Fed chair's press conference?
No. Clometrix measures the 15 minutes from the 2:00 p.m. statement. It does not measure the press conference separately. The Fed Interest Rate has a median Bitcoin price swing of 4.24x since 2021.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.