Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 22 September 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $43,128.91 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.87% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.48% of its price, against 1.11% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.86x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.76x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 4.86x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a contained response after the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its target range at 0.00-0.25%. The price stood at $43,128.91 at the 2:00 PM release. It advanced 1.87% in the first fifteen minutes yet closed the hour flat. The high-to-low range reached 2.48% of the price in that hour, compared with 1.11% in the preceding hour.
Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 4.86x, close to the 4.29x median across the 46 releases of this event measured since 2021. Volume expanded 5.76x against the typical 5.81x. The outcome aligns with the ordinary classification assigned to this release.
Rate holds have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.31x across 28 cases, while changes generated 5.37x across 18 instances. The 4.86x reading exceeded the hold benchmark, showing a response stronger than the decision type alone would indicate.
Traders reviewing the next release of this event can observe that the accompanying projections and dot plot coincided with activity levels that remained within the event's established range rather than producing an elevated outcome.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
42,018.70Close
43,891.2324h Change
1872.53 (4.27%)24h High
44,296.0024h Low
41,841.4624h Volume
52,459 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
22nd September, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 43119.92 | 43139.34 | 43101.95 | 43128.92 | 0.02% | 0.09% | 21 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 43317.00 | 42931.02 | 43302.93 | 0.40% | 0.89% | 233 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43205.09 | 43232.94 | 43100.02 | 43128.92 | -0.18% | 0.31% | 124 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 43796.76 | 42931.02 | 43760.93 | 1.44% | 1.98% | 1,253 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43263.47 | 43266.03 | 43100.02 | 43128.92 | -0.31% | 0.38% | 235 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 43945.00 | 42931.02 | 43866.13 | 1.68% | 2.31% | 1,979 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43179.69 | 43269.00 | 43100.02 | 43128.92 | -0.12% | 0.39% | 360 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 43969.98 | 42931.02 | 43934.30 | 1.83% | 2.36% | 2,476 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 43052.39 | 43298.93 | 43043.55 | 43128.92 | 0.18% | 0.59% | 877 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 44000.55 | 42931.02 | 43897.81 | 1.75% | 2.43% | 3,749 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 43339.00 | 43402.05 | 42922.18 | 43128.92 | -0.49% | 1.11% | 2,291 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 44000.55 | 42931.02 | 43134.05 | 0.01% | 2.43% | 6,091 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 43222.96 | 43465.00 | 42922.18 | 43128.92 | -0.22% | 1.25% | 5,363 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 44000.55 | 42855.01 | 43384.90 | 0.59% | 2.60% | 8,342 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42372.30 | 43465.00 | 42271.36 | 43128.92 | 1.75% | 2.75% | 12,451 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 44000.55 | 42855.01 | 43247.30 | 0.27% | 2.60% | 11,711 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 41928.31 | 43465.00 | 41874.65 | 43128.92 | 2.78% | 3.66% | 16,132 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 44000.55 | 42855.01 | 43543.61 | 0.95% | 2.60% | 14,144 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42018.70 | 42749.40 | 41841.46 | 42372.29 | 0.83% | 2.12% | 15,012 BTC |
| During | 42372.30 | 44000.55 | 42271.36 | 43247.30 | 2.02% | 3.93% | 24,161 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 42018.70 | 43465.00 | 41841.46 | 43128.92 | 2.57% | 3.74% | 27,463 BTC |
| During | 43128.91 | 44296.00 | 42855.01 | 43891.23 | 1.74% | 3.25% | 24,997 BTC |
