BTC Volatility Analysis for Fed Interest Rate, 22nd September 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 22 September 2021 at 2:00 PM EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $43,128.91 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.87% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.48% of its price, against 1.11% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.86x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.76x, against a typical 5.81x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 4.86x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a contained response after the Federal Open Market Committee maintained its target range at 0.00-0.25%. The price stood at $43,128.91 at the 2:00 PM release. It advanced 1.87% in the first fifteen minutes yet closed the hour flat. The high-to-low range reached 2.48% of the price in that hour, compared with 1.11% in the preceding hour.

Clometrix recorded a volatility ratio of 4.86x, close to the 4.29x median across the 46 releases of this event measured since 2021. Volume expanded 5.76x against the typical 5.81x. The outcome aligns with the ordinary classification assigned to this release.

Rate holds have produced a median volatility ratio of 3.31x across 28 cases, while changes generated 5.37x across 18 instances. The 4.86x reading exceeded the hold benchmark, showing a response stronger than the decision type alone would indicate.

Traders reviewing the next release of this event can observe that the accompanying projections and dot plot coincided with activity levels that remained within the event's established range rather than producing an elevated outcome.

About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

42,018.70

Close

43,891.23

24h Change

1872.53 (4.27%)

24h High

44,296.00

24h Low

41,841.46

24h Volume

52,459 BTC

US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

Federal Open Market Committee

22nd September, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before43119.9243139.3443101.9543128.920.02%0.09%21 BTC
During43128.9143317.0042931.0243302.930.40%0.89%233 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before43205.0943232.9443100.0243128.92-0.18%0.31%124 BTC
During43128.9143796.7642931.0243760.931.44%1.98%1,253 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before43263.4743266.0343100.0243128.92-0.31%0.38%235 BTC
During43128.9143945.0042931.0243866.131.68%2.31%1,979 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before43179.6943269.0043100.0243128.92-0.12%0.39%360 BTC
During43128.9143969.9842931.0243934.301.83%2.36%2,476 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before43052.3943298.9343043.5543128.920.18%0.59%877 BTC
During43128.9144000.5542931.0243897.811.75%2.43%3,749 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before43339.0043402.0542922.1843128.92-0.49%1.11%2,291 BTC
During43128.9144000.5542931.0243134.050.01%2.43%6,091 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before43222.9643465.0042922.1843128.92-0.22%1.25%5,363 BTC
During43128.9144000.5542855.0143384.900.59%2.60%8,342 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before42372.3043465.0042271.3643128.921.75%2.75%12,451 BTC
During43128.9144000.5542855.0143247.300.27%2.60%11,711 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before41928.3143465.0041874.6543128.922.78%3.66%16,132 BTC
During43128.9144000.5542855.0143543.610.95%2.60%14,144 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before42018.7042749.4041841.4642372.290.83%2.12%15,012 BTC
During42372.3044000.5542271.3643247.302.02%3.93%24,161 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before42018.7043465.0041841.4643128.922.57%3.74%27,463 BTC
During43128.9144296.0042855.0143891.231.74%3.25%24,997 BTC

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