How Bitcoin reacted to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on 23 December 2021

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 23 December 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for November 2021, against 0.5% in October 2021. Core prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.75x, against 2.03x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.53x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $48,786.72 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.16% lower, and an hour later 0.44% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.7% of its price, against 0.87% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.75x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin showed a quiet reaction to the Core PCE release on 23 December 2021. Its volatility ratio reached only 0.75x in the quarter hour after publication, well below the 2.09x median recorded across 69 Core PCE prints since 2021. Volume rose a modest 1.53x against the typical 2.55x. The market barely registered the print under Clometrix criteria, with the price falling just 0.16 percent in fifteen minutes and 0.44 percent after one hour from the $48,786.72 level. The hourly range narrowed to 0.7 percent from 0.87 percent beforehand.

This instance fell 33 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window in which Core PCE has historically lifted Bitcoin volatility to a 2.13x median. The observed 0.75x ratio therefore sat below even the 1.81x median for non-Fed-timed releases.

Clometrix classifies the outcome as quiet for this event. Traders reviewing the record may note that timing relative to policy meetings has coincided with larger moves in the past, though the single release supplies no basis for expecting the same pattern ahead.

What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every Core PCE release for Bitcoin