The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 April 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for March 2026, against 0.4% in February 2026. Core prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.82x, against 1.79x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.97x, against a typical 2.13x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,267.13 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.13% lower, and an hour later 0.35% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.51% of its price, against 0.84% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 29 April rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.82x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Minimal Movement After Multiple Releases
Core PCE for March arrived at 0.3 percent, slower than February's 0.4 percent, alongside personal income, outlays and other indicators. Ethereum registered a volatility ratio of 0.82x in the release window, compared with 1.80x for the event since 2021. Volume ratio reached just 0.97x against a typical 2.15x. The market therefore registered no material reaction.
Price action remained contained. From the release level of $2,267.13, Ethereum fell 0.13 percent after fifteen minutes and 0.35 percent after one hour. The hourly range narrowed to 0.51 percent from 0.84 percent beforehand.
The release came the day after the Federal Reserve's April decision. Releases in the two weeks before policy meetings have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across eighteen observations, nearly identical to the 1.77x median outside that window. This instance nevertheless fell short of the broader 1.77x benchmark.
Traders monitoring the next Core PCE print may note that clustered data and proximity to policy meetings do not guarantee elevated volatility when the numbers themselves show only modest change.
How it compares
Across 70 Core PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.79x. This one was 0.46 times the usual.
Thin line: Core PCE's usual, 1.79x. Thick line: this release, 0.82x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2268.52 | 2266.53 | 2268.51 | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.05% | 127 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2268.84 | 2265.21 | 2265.81 | -0.06% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 545 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2268.84 | 2263.91 | 2266.68 | -0.02% | 0.22% | 0.35% | 974 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2268.84 | 2263.91 | 2264.18 | -0.13% | 0.22% | 0.48% | 1,361 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2268.84 | 2263.91 | 2265.45 | -0.07% | 0.22% | 0.59% | 3,018 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2268.84 | 2257.38 | 2259.15 | -0.35% | 0.51% | 0.84% | 5,715 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2272.56 | 2245.82 | 2258.39 | -0.39% | 1.18% | 0.95% | 23,274 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2275.13 | 2245.82 | 2262.00 | -0.23% | 1.29% | 0.95% | 36,521 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2275.13 | 2245.82 | 2255.95 | -0.50% | 1.29% | 1.32% | 45,593 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2275.13 | 2245.82 | 2262.00 | 0.18% | 1.29% | 2.08% | 65,285 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2275.13 | 2245.82 | 2262.09 | -0.22% | 1.29% | 2.08% | 66,308 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Core PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.78x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 0.82x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.81x | - |
| BNB | 2.00x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 0.86x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.44x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.00x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.00x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.03x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.37x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.15x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.00x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.23x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.00x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.99x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | Not measured | 1.50x | - |
| Aave | 0.80x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.25x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | Not measured | 1.43x | - |
| Aptos | 0.00x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.99x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services, excluding food and energy. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 0.82x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Core PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past Core PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.