How Bitcoin reacted to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on 30 June 2022

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 June 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for May 2022, against 0.3% in April 2022. Core prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $19,146.55 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.59% higher, and an hour later 0.42% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.02% of its price, against 0.92% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.55x, against 2.03x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.44x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.55x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.03x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Core PCE release of 30 June 2022. The volatility ratio reached 1.55x against the 2.09x median recorded across 69 Core PCE prints since 2021. Bitcoin stood at $19,146.55 at the 8:30 AM print, then rose 0.59 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.42 percent after one hour, while the hourly high-to-low range expanded only to 1.02 percent from 0.92 percent beforehand.

The release fell 26 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced stronger Bitcoin moves. Volume expanded 2.44x, close to the 2.55x typical for the event.

Core PCE releases that land inside the two weeks before a policy meeting have shown a median volatility ratio of 2.13x, materially higher than the 1.81x recorded at other times. The muted response on 30 June therefore aligned with the pattern of stronger moves near policy meetings rather than contradicting it. A trader reviewing upcoming releases can therefore weigh calendar proximity to Federal Reserve decisions as one factor that has repeatedly coincided with larger subsequent ranges in Bitcoin, without assuming any single release will follow the historical median.

What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every Core PCE release for Bitcoin