Bitcoin Erases 2025 Gains at $93,714 Low as Weekly Selloff Accelerates

Bitcoin tested support near $107,000 early in the week before breaking below $100,000 on November 4, only to stabilize at $102,296 by Sunday evening. The move left the leading cryptocurrency down 7.13 percent for the seven days.The breach below six figures illustrated how quickly leverage can unwind when spot bids thin out, transmitting reduced risk appetite directly into derivatives through lower funding rates and forced position cuts that cap any immediate recovery.Traders spent the week navigating thin liquidity and the absence of the October jobs report originally slated for November 7. Without that print, positioning for next week’s calendar remained tentative, and price action stayed anchored to levels reached after the mid-week breach of six figures.That data gap left dollar strength and cross-asset correlations as the dominant transmission channels, so crypto flows responded more to equity futures and Treasury moves than to any independent catalyst.Employment Report SignificanceThe employment report serves as a primary input for gauging labor market slack that influences expectations for balance sheet policy and the resulting availability of risk capital across leveraged markets.The October employment report failed to arrive because of the ongoing government shutdown. Markets therefore operated without the usual Friday-morning catalyst that typically sets volatility ranges for both equities and crypto through the weekend.Absence of the data left participants watching order flow and funding levels rather than economic surprises. Crypto prices reflected that vacuum, drifting lower through Thursday before a modest rebound into Sunday.Without the usual surprise element, traders relied on open interest shifts to gauge whether the risk-off tone would persist or reverse once liquidity returned.Bitcoin and Ethereum Price ActionBitcoin opened the week above $107,000, traded as low as the sub-$100,000 region on November 4, and settled at $102,296 on November 9.The test of that support zone showed how spot demand at round numbers can absorb initial selling yet still allow derivatives to dictate the pace of any subsequent rebound through changes in basis and margin requirements.Ethereum underperformed, posting an 11.86 percent loss over the same period. The larger drawdown suggests leverage was trimmed more aggressively in ETH than in BTC, consistent with its higher-beta behavior during risk-off stretches.That relative underperformance also reflected how altcoin funding markets tighten faster once bitcoin itself trades below a psychologically important threshold, reducing the capacity for leveraged long exposure elsewhere.Altcoin StoriesSolana recorded the steepest decline among major assets, falling 14.90 percent for the week. The move coincided with broader altcoin de-risking rather than any coin-specific catalyst visible in the data.The sharper percentage move highlighted how thinner order books in mid-cap tokens transmit the same liquidity shock into larger realized losses once overall risk appetite contracts.BNB lost 9.29 percent over the same span, tracking the wider market but avoiding the extremes seen in Solana.Its more contained decline indicated that exchange-linked tokens can retain relative stability when the dominant driver remains macro rather than platform-specific flows.Market Structure and SentimentThe week’s price action pointed to a clear risk-off tone, with the largest-cap assets posting the smallest percentage losses and smaller names amplifying the downside. Correlation with traditional risk assets likely remained elevated given the macro data vacuum.That pattern of relative performance showed how capital rotation favors the most liquid names first when leverage is being reduced across the board, limiting the scope for broad-based bounces until fresh liquidity arrives.Heading into the following week, the dominant question is whether the delayed jobs report will arrive in time to reset expectations or whether the market will continue to price policy uncertainty through spot and derivatives flows alone.What the Data Is Telling Us Without fresh employment figures, traders appear to be holding smaller positions, which limits both upside follow-through and further liquidation cascades.That smaller positioning also means any eventual data release can produce outsized volatility because open interest rebuilds from a lower base and therefore reacts more sharply to the first new information.Next week’s calendar will matter more than usual because the missing October data now stacks with whatever November prints are released. Markets will watch for any sign that the shutdown resolution allows the delayed report to surface before additional volatility builds.

9th November 2025

Bitcoin opened the week near $94,177 and closed Sunday at $86,805, down 7.83%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $903 million in net outflows on November 20 alone, with Ethereum ETFs shedding another $261 million the same day. This Week's Macro ReleasesInternational trade figures for August arrived Wednesday morning with exports at 280,832, imports at 340,382 and the balance of trade at -59,550. Initial claims fell to 220,000 while continued claims dropped to 1,960,000. The combination of still-positive hiring and a higher jobless rate left markets parsing whether the data supported fewer or more rate cuts ahead.The softer external demand signal in the trade figures points to slower growth momentum that could sustain easier financial conditions overall, supporting crypto through improved dollar liquidity and steadier risk appetite once positioning stabilizes.The labor cluster shows hiring still positive yet with rising slack, transmitting to crypto via expectations of measured policy support that limits aggressive dollar strength and keeps leverage available for risk assets rather than forcing broad deleveraging.How Bitcoin Reacted, MeasuredAt the 8:30 AM ET trade release on Wednesday, Bitcoin stood at $91,790, falling 0.3% in fifteen minutes and 0.7% after one hour. The hour's high-low span reached 0.9% versus 0.6% beforehand, producing a volatility ratio of 1.53x and volume ratio of 0.98x. That ranked fifth among the last twelve International Exports prints, above the 1.28x median. Ether dropped 2.2% over the same hour.Thursday's 8:30 AM labor cluster saw Bitcoin open at $91,918, down 0.3% after fifteen minutes and 0.5% after sixty minutes. Span widened to 2.3% from 0.4% previously, lifting the volatility ratio to 2.32x and volume to 2.92x. The print ranked third of the last twelve Continued Claims releases against a 1.47x median. Ether fell 0.3% over the hour while its span reached 2.8%.The ranking near the top of recent prints for the labor release highlights how this data set produced outsized immediate flows compared with similar events, meaning crypto desks faced quicker margin pressure and had less room to hold leveraged exposure through the uncertainty.Bitcoin and Ethereum Price ActionBitcoin spent the week sliding from the $94,177 open on November 16 to the $86,805 close on November 23. Ethereum mirrored the move, closing at $2,801.68 after trading below $3,000 mid-week.The sustained decline reflects a broad repricing of growth-sensitive assets as liquidity expectations shifted, pushing traders to reduce gross exposure and favor shorter duration positions until clearer signals on policy transmission emerge.Altcoin StoriesXRP closed the week at $2.0463, down 7.68%, after touching a low of $1.81. Cumulative inflows into XRP ETFs reached nearly $500 million, including $118 million added on November 20 alone. Solana recovered from an intraday low of $129 to close at $130.71, supported by $55.6 million in ETF inflows for the week.Continued product inflows amid price weakness show that certain segments attracted dedicated capital even as overall leverage contracted, allowing selective stabilization that cushions altcoin drawdowns relative to the broader deleveraging seen in major assets.Market Structure and SentimentRisk appetite deteriorated as equity and crypto correlations tightened. Record ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion on a single day underscored the shift from leveraged long positioning to outright redemptions. Funding rates compressed and open interest declined, leaving the market lighter heading into the final week of November.The compression in funding and drop in open interest reduces the incentive for new leveraged longs, extending the period of cautious positioning and making any later liquidity improvement transmit more slowly into crypto prices until leverage rebuilds.What the Data Is Telling UsHotter-than-expected payrolls combined with a rising unemployment rate produced the largest volatility spike of the week, yet the move remained contained relative to historical medians for labor releases. The combination suggests the market had already priced a modest cooling in hiring and is now adjusting expectations for the pace of any remaining policy support.Next Week's CalendarRetail Sales, Core PPI and PPI are scheduled for Tuesday 25 November at 8:30 AM ET. Durable Orders and Initial Claims follow on Wednesday 26 November at the same time. Any material surprise in the inflation prints would reset positioning ahead of the December FOMC meeting.

23rd November 2025

The week was defined by the Federal Reserve's quarter-point cut on October 29 and the market's immediate reassessment of how much easing might follow. Bitcoin had already climbed above $115,000 on October 27 on trade optimism before the decision.The lower target range eases financial conditions in a way that can expand liquidity available to risk assets by lowering the cost of funding positions. That reassessment after the press conference altered expectations for the pace of future accommodation, tightening the implied path and pressuring leveraged exposure through reduced risk appetite.By October 31 Bitcoin had slipped to around $109,700, posting its first negative October since 2018. Ethereum followed a similar path, peaking above $4,200 early in the week on institutional flows before easing into the $3,850-$3,900 range. The pattern showed a classic post-decision compression rather than a sustained directional move.The contained price moves after the release transmitted the hawkish guidance into crypto via a firmer dollar tone and a pullback in overall risk appetite, prompting traders to reduce leverage rather than extend positions.This Week's Macro ReleasesThe Federal Reserve lowered its target range by a quarter point to 3.75-4.00 percent on October 29, down from the prior 4.00-4.25 percent band. No dot plot or new projections accompanied the statement. The move aligned with market pricing yet the subsequent press conference introduced caution around further cuts.Crypto markets absorbed the decision without a violent repricing. Bitcoin traded at $111,884 at the 2:00 PM ET release and fell 0.6 percent within fifteen minutes and 1 percent within the hour. Ether started at $4,014 and declined 0.8 percent in fifteen minutes and 2.4 percent after one hour. The reaction stayed contained relative to the event's longer record.The quarter-point adjustment itself lowers the policy anchor, which can support broader liquidity by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and thereby sustaining risk appetite when guidance remains constructive.How Bitcoin Reacted, MeasuredBitcoin's high-to-low range expanded to 2.5 percent in the hour after the release from 0.8 percent in the prior hour. Ether's range widened to 4.4 percent from 1.4 percent. The volatility ratio reached 3.08 times a normal quarter-hour while volume ran 4.51 times normal.That volatility reading ranked ninth among the last twelve Fed decisions, below the 3.67 times median. The measured response therefore registered as ordinary rather than extreme for the event, suggesting much of the cut had already been discounted before the announcement.The range expansion after the release shows how the policy signal traveled into crypto through short-term leverage adjustments, with volume confirming participation yet without pushing volatility to levels that would indicate forced unwinds.Bitcoin and Ethereum Price ActionBitcoin opened the week near $114,500 after a rebound into October 26 and later touched $116,000 on October 27 before closing the period near $109,700. The weekly close marked the first red October for Bitcoin since 2018.Ethereum traded above $4,200 early before settling in the $3,850-$3,900 band by October 31.The weekly path illustrates how the post-release reassessment capped upside momentum, leaving traders to manage positions against a firmer dollar backdrop that weighed on risk assets more broadly.Market Structure and SentimentRisk assets turned lower once Powell signaled December easing was not guaranteed. Correlation with equities remained elevated as both asset classes digested the same policy signal. No extreme leverage unwind appeared in the measured data, yet the first negative October print since 2018 introduced caution heading into November.The absence of outsized leverage liquidation kept the transmission to crypto orderly, with the shared equity correlation underscoring that the guidance shift affected risk appetite uniformly rather than through crypto-specific channels.What the Data Is Telling UsPast episodes in which a Fed cut arrived alongside hawkish guidance have often produced short-term consolidation rather than immediate trend resumption. The modest volatility ratios observed this week align with that pattern, indicating the market had already adjusted positioning ahead of the meeting.Traders therefore interpret the ordinary reaction as confirmation that positioning had priced the baseline cut, leaving any further policy path dependent on subsequent data releases that could alter liquidity and dollar dynamics.

2nd November 2025