Ethereum Forecast Ahead of US CPI: Two Market Pathways Traders Should Prepare For

The weekly U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report may look like just another labor statistic, but in reality, it’s one of the most consistent and closely watched measures of economic health. For traders in crypto, it has become a surprisingly potent volatility trigger. Why? Because jobless claims are a real-time window into the strength of the labor market — and by extension, the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy. A rising number suggests labor weakness, raising the odds of rate cuts and looser liquidity. A falling number signals labor strength, which may keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Both outcomes can swing sentiment sharply across risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Using Clometrix’s event-conditioned forecasting engine, we’ve broken down how crypto markets have historically reacted to two scenarios: This forecast uses a base reference price of $113,000 for Bitcoin at the time of release. All percentage changes and scenario paths are calculated relative to this level. Initial Claims Increase (a weaker labor market than the previous week) Initial Claims Decrease (a stronger labor market than the previous week) Our models track minute-level data for BTC and other major cryptocurrencies in the four-hour window following the release, providing traders with distributions of highs, lows, closes, and average paths. Scenario 1: Initial Claims Increase When Initial Claims increase from the prior week, markets typically interpret this as a sign of a weakening labor market. For crypto, that often translates into short-term volatility followed by medium-term upside, as traders price in the possibility of Fed easing or looser conditions ahead. Below is the forecast summary table for this scenario, covering 1-minute through 4-hour intervals after release:   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 113296.63 112938.30 113146.45 113025.65 112700.66 112785.07 114052.48 113000.00 113766.71 5m 113355.72 112874.57 113103.73 113030.06 112393.53 112843.72 114052.48 113000.00 113654.61 10m 113406.91 112838.18 113158.65 113030.06 112393.53 112503.14 114423.23 113000.00 113828.29 15m 113462.40 112781.35 113203.40 113030.06 112247.99 112371.95 114423.23 113000.00 114054.40 30m 113504.54 112696.26 113139.33 113030.06 111816.10 111936.78 114423.23 113000.00 114316.56 1h 113711.22 112620.77 113244.31 113030.06 111816.10 112248.89 115658.32 112956.72 115279.78 2h 114169.10 112216.68 113335.84 113039.55 111173.92 111866.16 118012.79 112956.72 117987.48 4h 114468.77 112086.06 113432.22 113039.55 110683.05 111519.93 118838.48 112956.72 117802.73 The data shows that in the first 15–30 minutes, downside tails can be sharp (minimum lows falling as much as −1% within half an hour), but the average close tends to recover into positive territory by the one-hour mark. At the extreme, maximum highs within two to four hours after release have historically reached gains of +4–5%. In other words: the path is noisy, but the balance of probabilities favors upside if claims increase. Scenario 2: Initial Claims Decrease When Initial Claims decline, it reflects labor strength — which in turn suggests the Fed has less incentive to cut rates. Historically, this tends to be less bullish for crypto, and sometimes mildly bearish, as tighter conditions are priced in. Forecast summary table for this scenario:   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 113104.53 112944.74 112995.93 113000.00 112695.92 112695.92 113966.15 113000.00 113198.20 5m 113169.95 112879.43 113071.19 113000.00 112578.85 112780.44 113966.15 113000.00 113614.61 10m 113205.55 112866.55 113000.45 113000.00 112578.85 112665.41 113966.15 113000.00 113291.31 15m 113213.12 112855.93 113014.92 113000.00 112535.23 112556.81 113966.15 113000.00 113383.30 30m 113222.61 112800.55 112983.16 113000.00 112393.98 112490.26 113966.15 113000.00 113527.82 1h 113265.78 112704.50 112889.15 113000.00 112393.98 112500.09 114135.20 112981.47 113315.84 2h 113534.49 112246.97 112681.11 113000.00 111602.76 111811.47 114660.31 112821.12 114198.93 4h 113779.70 111933.85 112700.10 113005.76 110809.38 111028.49 115580.92 112715.35 114364.36 Here, the average closes skew negative by the 1–4 hour horizons, with downside extending to −1% or more in minimum cases. Upside still exists — particularly in strong risk-on periods — but historically the market’s median path tilts weaker when jobless claims decline. What Are Initial Jobless Claims? Initial Jobless Claims are a weekly measure of how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. It’s one of the most timely indicators of labor market health in the United States. An increase in claims means more people are losing jobs → a weaker labor market → higher probability of monetary easing → often interpreted as bullish for risk assets like crypto. A decrease in claims means fewer layoffs and stronger labor → the Fed may see less reason to cut rates → often interpreted as bearish or at least neutral for crypto. Unlike lagging indicators such as GDP, Initial Claims give traders near real-time insight into the economy’s momentum, which explains why the release consistently moves markets. Final Thoughts Initial Claims may not sound like the most glamorous data point, but week after week it shapes market expectations about the Fed and liquidity conditions. For crypto traders, that makes it a recurring volatility event worth preparing for. Our analysis shows two very different playbooks: If claims increase: short-term turbulence but historically a tilt toward upside in the hours that follow. If claims decrease: often weaker closes and higher probability of downside pressure. By studying these patterns in advance — and using interactive charts to explore minute-by-minute ranges — traders can avoid being blindsided and instead approach Initial Claims with structured, data-driven scenarios. Disclaimer The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information. Release dates used in this forecast: Intial Claims Increase from Previous: [25th Jul 2025], [18th Jul 2025], [11th Jul 2025], [4th Jul 2025], [27th Jun 2025], [20th Jun 2025], [23rd May 2025], [16th May 2025], [9th May 2025], [18th Apr 2025], [4th Apr 2025], [14th Mar 2025] Initial Claims Decrease from Previous: [25th Jul 2025], [18th Jul 2025], [11th Jul 2025], [4th Jul 2025], [27th Jun 2025], [20th Jun 2025], [23rd May 2025], [16th May 2025], [9th May 2025], [18th Apr 2025], [4th Apr 2025], [14th Mar 2025] Want to see how your favorite coins might react to upcoming events? With Clometrix, you can create your own forecasts across BTC, ETH, and 25+ altcoins. Sign up for free and explore event-driven scenarios before the market moves.

19th August 2025

The FOMC Minutes are one of the most closely watched releases on the Federal Reserve’s calendar. They provide investors with detailed insights into the Fed’s internal debates, policy leanings, and outlook on inflation, employment, and growth. For crypto markets, especially altcoins like Solana, these minutes often spark sharp moves as traders recalibrate expectations around liquidity and risk appetite. Why do they matter for crypto? Because the tone of the Fed’s minutes can shift risk sentiment instantly. A more hawkish set of minutes (pointing to higher-for-longer rates) may pressure Solana and other digital assets. Conversely, a dovish tilt (hinting at potential easing or concern about slowing growth) can boost appetite for risk assets. This makes the FOMC Minutes a high-volatility event worth forecasting in advance. Using Clometrix’s event-conditioned forecasting engine, we’ve analyzed how Solana has historically reacted in the hours following the release of FOMC Minutes. This forecast uses a base reference price of $183.84 for Solana at the time of release. All percentage changes and scenario paths are calculated relative to this level. Scenario: FOMC Minutes Release In this forecast, we model Solana’s potential price movements in the aftermath of the August 21, 2025 release. Because there are no numeric outcomes (like “higher” or “lower” data prints), the single scenario focuses on how Solana typically behaves when the Fed’s minutes are published, capturing liquidity shifts and volatility bursts across multiple timeframes.   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 183.99 183.51 183.71 183.84 183.06 183.15 184.46 183.78 184.20 5m 184.25 183.16 183.70 183.92 180.87 181.96 184.71 183.73 184.65 10m 184.54 183.06 183.86 183.92 180.87 181.92 185.49 183.73 185.29 15m 184.62 182.95 184.02 183.92 180.87 182.50 185.79 183.73 185.52 30m 184.94 182.64 183.93 183.92 180.87 181.28 186.03 183.73 185.66 1h 185.08 182.38 183.63 183.92 180.39 181.18 186.40 183.73 186.38 2h 185.60 181.90 184.05 184.08 180.07 180.91 188.88 183.73 188.17 4h 186.36 181.59 184.99 184.19 179.93 181.71 191.38 183.73 190.15 The table above summarizes Solana’s historical performance following FOMC Minutes releases across multiple intraday horizons. Notice the wide spread between minimum and maximum outcomes, highlighting the event’s tendency to spark volatility. While average closes show only modest changes, extremes suggest traders should prepare for both sharp rallies and sudden drawdowns. Educational: Why FOMC Minutes Matter for Solana The FOMC Minutes provide transparency into the Fed’s internal discussions, revealing how policymakers view inflation, growth, and the labor market. For Solana and other altcoins, the connection comes through global liquidity and risk appetite. A hawkish tone can sap demand for speculative assets, while dovish language may act as a catalyst for inflows into crypto markets. They often reshape market expectations for future rate moves. They signal the balance of risks the Fed is focused on. They can drive both immediate volatility and medium-term trends. Final Thoughts The August 21st FOMC Minutes will arrive at a time when crypto markets are already hypersensitive to Fed policy. Solana traders should be prepared for outsized volatility, with potential whipsaws in both directions. Risk management — particularly around leverage and tight stops — is essential. Our models show that while average impacts are contained, maximum historical moves suggest this is not an event to ignore. Disclaimer The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information. Release dates used in this forecast: 10th Jul 2025, 2:00am 29th May 2025, 2:00am 10th Apr 2025, 2:00am 20th Feb 2025, 3:00am 8th Jan 2025, 3:00am 27th Nov 2024, 3:00am 10th Oct 2024, 2:00am 22nd Aug 2024, 2:00am 4th Jul 2024, 2:00am 23rd May 2024, 2:00am 11th Apr 2024, 2:00am 22nd Feb 2024, 3:00am Want to create your own crypto forecasts? Sign up for free at Clometrix and run event-conditioned scenarios on your favorite coins.

20th August 2025

Durable Goods Orders rarely dominate crypto headlines the way CPI or FOMC do, but they sit near the heart of the growth–inflation mix. A stronger print hints at resilient capex and factory activity; a weaker one implies softer demand and potentially easier policy down the line. For high-beta assets like XRP, those signals can translate into fast, tradeable swings in the minutes after the release. In traditional markets, upside surprises often nudge Treasury yields and the dollar higher as investors price stronger activity. In crypto, that can mean a brief risk-off wobble that sometimes fades as liquidity reprices and positioning normalizes. Downside surprises, by contrast, tend to pull yields lower and can invite risk-taking—yet the path is rarely linear. Our minute-level data shows that XRP, like other large-cap alts, can whipsaw in the first few minutes before settling into a clearer direction into the +1h to +4h window. Using Clometrix’s event-conditioned forecasting engine, we present two XRP playbooks for this release: an increase in Durable Goods Orders and a decrease. Each scenario quantifies 1-minute intervals from T=0 (release) through +4 hours, with toggle-able min/low/high paths and the average trajectory. Scenario 1: Orders Increase (growth signal beats prior) Scenario 2: Orders Decrease (growth signal softens vs prior) Our framework is designed for traders: consistent reference price at the timestamped release, distribution of highs/lows/closes at +1m, +5m, +10m, +15m, +30m, +1h, +2h, and +4h, and a table that surfaces both tails and central tendencies. Scenario 1: Durable Goods Orders Increase (XRP) An upside surprise typically reinforces the “resilient activity” narrative. Cross-asset, that often pushes front-end rates and the dollar higher as growth gets marked up. For XRP, our history around this event shows two common opening behaviors: a brief knee-jerk dip as macro desks fade risk, or a two-sided whipsaw driven by headline algos before a directional impulse emerges into the +30m to +1h window. The averages and extreme paths below make that pattern explicit—and quantify how far it tends to run. Reference Price: $2.9000   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.89 2.89 2.91 2.90 2.90 5m 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.88 2.88 2.91 2.90 2.91 10m 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.87 2.88 2.91 2.90 2.91 15m 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.87 2.91 2.90 2.91 30m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.89 2.91 2.90 2.91 1h 2.91 2.88 2.89 2.90 2.86 2.87 2.92 2.90 2.91 2h 2.92 2.86 2.89 2.90 2.82 2.83 2.98 2.89 2.94 4h 2.92 2.85 2.87 2.90 2.80 2.81 3.01 2.89 2.98 Interpretation: The average close is negative at every horizon and deteriorates from about −0.07% at +1m to roughly −0.91% by +4h, while the average low deepens from around −0.10% at +1m to about −1.71% at +4h. That tells you the typical path after an upside DGO print is a grind-lower, not an immediate moonshot. There is upside potential—the max high reaches about +3.70% by +4h with a max close near +2.78%—but those are tail outcomes, not the central tendency. Practically, XRP tends to fade after the first reaction, with downside tails widening into +1h and +2h. If you see a quick spike without +30m extension (max-high prints early but average close stays soft), treat it as liquidity, not trend. Follow-through risk rises if +1h average close is already below −0.20% and the gap between average and min paths keeps widening into +2h. Scenario 2: Durable Goods Orders Decrease (XRP) A downside surprise points to softer factory demand and a potential easing bias ahead. In macro assets that often shows up as lower yields and a softer dollar, conditions that can support risk sentiment. For XRP, the same noisy opening appears, but the averages lean more constructive if stabilization arrives by +15m to +30m. The table below shows a mild positive drift through +1h and +4h, with a wobble risk mid-window. Reference Price: $2.9000   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.91 2.90 2.91 5m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.87 2.87 2.94 2.90 2.91 10m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.86 2.94 2.90 2.92 15m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.85 2.86 2.94 2.90 2.94 30m 2.92 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.85 2.86 2.95 2.90 2.93 1h 2.92 2.88 2.90 2.90 2.85 2.87 2.95 2.90 2.93 2h 2.93 2.87 2.90 2.90 2.81 2.83 2.98 2.90 2.96 4h 2.94 2.86 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.85 3.06 2.90 2.98 Interpretation: The average close tilts positive at +1m (~+0.08%), dips near flat by +5m, then improves into +30m (~+0.11%) and +1h (~+0.12%). There is a mid-window wobble at +2h (average close ~−0.09%), after which the average recovers by +4h (~+0.15%). In other words, the central tendency after a downside DGO print is modestly constructive, provided price stabilizes by +15m to +30m. Tails are still wide—min low can reach −3.62% by +4h and min close as deep as −2.26% at +2h—but upside extremes are larger, with a max high near +5.59% and max close around +2.98% by +4h. The trade translation is straightforward: if early closes cluster above the average path by +15m/+30m and the gap between the average and min paths narrows into +1h, conditions favor constructive drift; if the +2h dip shows up (average close goes negative and min tails expand), patience and smaller size beat chasing. What Is Durable Goods Orders? Durable Goods Orders measure new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for products intended to last three years or more—machinery, vehicles, electronics, aerospace. Because these orders reflect corporate and consumer appetite for big-ticket items, the series is a closely watched real-economy signal of capex and demand. Markets parse both the headline figure and the ex-transportation subset to strip out volatile aircraft swings. Surprises can ripple through yields, the dollar, and risk appetite within minutes of release. Why crypto cares: when orders rise, traders sometimes price a stronger growth impulse and tighter financial conditions—knee-jerk risk-off that can fade as positioning adjusts. When orders fall, easier-policy expectations can support risk, but thin liquidity around the print means the early move is often choppy before a direction emerges. Final Thoughts Durable Goods isn’t the loudest macro horn, yet XRP’s reaction pattern is consistent enough to matter on a trading desk. The edge comes from preparation: mark the release, anchor to a consistent reference price, and let the +1m to +30m behavior tell you whether the move is likely to extend or mean-revert. In the increase scenario, the averages lean lower into +1h/+2h/+4h even though upside tails exist—treat fast spikes skeptically unless they extend beyond +30m. In the decrease scenario, the averages lean modestly higher with a mid-window wobble—look for stabilization by +15m/+30m and narrowing dispersion before leaning with the drift. As always, respect the tails. When max paths light up quickly and the gap to the average path widens, you’re in a higher-octane regime where sizing and timing matter as much as direction. When the paths compress, the trade becomes more about patience and execution than heroics. Release dates used in this forecast: 26/06/2025 8:30pm 24/04/2025 8:30pm 26/03/2025 8:30pm 28/01/2025 9:30pm 25/10/2024 8:30pm 26/08/2024 8:30pm 27/06/2024 8:30pm 24/04/2024 8:30pm 26/03/2024 8:30pm 22/12/2023 9:30pm 26/10/2023 8:30pm 27/09/2023 8:30pm 27/05/2025 8:30pm 27/02/2025 9:30pm 23/12/2024 9:30pm 27/11/2024 9:30pm 26/09/2024 8:30pm 25/07/2024 8:30pm 24/05/2024 8:30pm 27/02/2024 9:30pm 25/01/2024 9:30pm 22/11/2023 9:30pm 24/08/2023 8:30pm 27/06/2023 8:30pm Disclaimer The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

26th August 2025