How Polkadot reacted to the International Trade Balance in Goods and Services on 5 October 2022

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis on 5 October 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The deficit narrowed to $67B for August 2022, from $68.4B (The International Trade Balance in Goods and Services).

It arrived at the same moment as International Imports in Goods and Services and International Exports in Goods and Services, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Polkadot's volatility ratio was 1.02x, against 1.03x for a typical Balance of Trade release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.92x, against a typical 1.21x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Polkadot moved

Polkadot was at $6.320 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.32% higher, and an hour later 0.47% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.95% of its price, against 1.27% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Balance of Trade releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Polkadot about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.01x across 23, against 1.09x across 47. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.02x compares with 1.09x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.

How it compares

Across 70 Balance of Trade releases since 2021, Polkadot's usual price swing is 1.03x. This one was 0.99 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: Balance of Trade's usual, 1.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.02x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After	High	Low	Close	Change	Range	Range before	Volume
1 minute	6.32	6.31	6.32	0.00%	0.16%	0.16%	214 DOT
5 minutes	6.32	6.31	6.31	-0.16%	0.16%	0.32%	2,572 DOT
10 minutes	6.34	6.31	6.34	0.32%	0.47%	0.32%	25,258 DOT
15 minutes	6.34	6.31	6.34	0.32%	0.47%	0.32%	33,562 DOT
30 minutes	6.34	6.31	6.33	0.16%	0.47%	0.47%	70,199 DOT
1 hour	6.34	6.28	6.29	-0.48%	0.95%	1.25%	236,517 DOT
2 hours	6.34	6.27	6.30	-0.32%	1.10%	1.56%	520,361 DOT
4 hours	6.37	6.27	6.34	0.32%	1.57%	1.56%	934,562 DOT
6 hours	6.41	6.27	6.38	0.94%	2.18%	2.48%	1.336M DOT
8 hours	6.40	6.27	6.34	-0.63%	2.03%	2.16%	1.717M DOT
12 hours	6.47	6.27	6.45	2.02%	3.09%	2.93%	2.176M DOT

Every coin at this release

Coin	Price swing	Usual for Balance of Trade	Reaction
Bitcoin	1.30x	1.10x	Quiet
Ethereum	1.39x	1.25x	Quiet
XRP	1.30x	1.07x	Quiet
BNB	1.73x	1.08x	Strong
Solana	1.63x	1.17x	Strong
Dogecoin	1.16x	1.15x	Quiet
TRON	0.91x	1.12x	Quiet
Cardano	1.73x	1.10x	Strong
Chainlink	2.81x	1.12x	Exceptional
Bitcoin Cash	1.25x	1.18x	Quiet
Hedera	1.01x	1.09x	Quiet
Avalanche	1.20x	1.01x	Quiet
Litecoin	1.21x	1.26x	Quiet
Shiba Inu	1.00x	1.04x	Quiet
Uniswap	1.05x	1.18x	Quiet
Polkadot	1.02x	1.03x	Quiet
Aave	1.35x	1.13x	Quiet
NEAR Protocol	1.02x	1.07x	Quiet
Internet Computer	1.52x	1.07x	Strong
POL (prev. MATIC)	1.59x	1.03x	Strong
Filecoin	1.51x	1.01x	Strong

What is the International Trade Balance in Goods and Services?

The balance of trade (BOT) measures economic transactions between a nation and its trading partners, showing the difference between the value of a country's imports and exports for a given period. The BEA and Census Bureau reports on the U.S. balance of payments (BOP), covering goods and services that move in and out of the country. Economists use this information to gauge the relative strength of a country's economy. When exports are higher than imports, it tends to boost GDP. In the opposite scenario, it creates a trade deficit.

Every Balance of Trade release for Polkadot

Questions about this page

Is 1.02x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next Balance of Trade do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Polkadot moved in after past Balance of Trade releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.