The release
Released by the Bureau of Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis on 7 March 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The deficit widened to $67.1B for January 2024, from $63.9B (The International Trade Balance in Goods and Services).
It arrived at the same moment as International Imports in Goods and Services, International Exports in Goods and Services, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
POL (prev. MATIC)'s volatility ratio was 1.03x, against 1.03x for a typical Balance of Trade release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.72x, against a typical 1.34x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How POL (prev. MATIC) moved
POL (prev. MATIC) was at $1.1300 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.88% higher, and an hour later 0.88% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.88% of its price, against 0.88% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Balance of Trade releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved POL (prev. MATIC) less than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 0.91x across 23, against 1.10x across 46. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 20 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.03x compares with 0.91x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
How it compares
Across 69 Balance of Trade releases since 2021, POL (prev. MATIC)'s usual price swing is 1.03x. This one was 1.00 times the usual.
Thin line: Balance of Trade's usual, 1.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.03x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 55,724 POL |
| 5 minutes | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 285,119 POL |
| 10 minutes | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.88% | 560,785 POL |
| 15 minutes | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 0.88% | 0.88% | 0.88% | 989,766 POL |
| 30 minutes | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 0.88% | 0.88% | 0.88% | 2.444M POL |
| 1 hour | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 0.88% | 0.88% | 0.88% | 6.131M POL |
| 2 hours | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.14 | 0.88% | 1.74% | 1.75% | 20.355M POL |
| 4 hours | 1.17 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 3.42% | 3.42% | 1.75% | 41.338M POL |
| 6 hours | 1.18 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 3.42% | 4.24% | 1.75% | 50.552M POL |
| 8 hours | 1.17 | 1.12 | 1.17 | 2.56% | 4.27% | 3.51% | 65.283M POL |
| 12 hours | 1.18 | 1.13 | 1.17 | 3.42% | 4.24% | 3.51% | 75.171M POL |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Balance of Trade | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.96x | 1.10x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.82x | 1.25x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.71x | 1.07x | Quiet |
| BNB | 0.62x | 1.08x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.74x | 1.17x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 0.54x | 1.15x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.54x | 1.12x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 0.70x | 1.10x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 0.74x | 1.12x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.52x | 1.05x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.75x | 1.18x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.82x | 1.09x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 2.31x | 1.01x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 0.61x | 1.26x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.73x | 1.04x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.86x | 1.18x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.86x | 1.03x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.80x | 1.13x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.01x | 1.07x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.33x | 1.19x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.55x | 1.07x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.03x | 1.03x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.78x | 1.01x | Quiet |
What is the International Trade Balance in Goods and Services?
The balance of trade (BOT) measures economic transactions between a nation and its trading partners, showing the difference between the value of a country's imports and exports for a given period. The BEA and Census Bureau reports on the U.S. balance of payments (BOP), covering goods and services that move in and out of the country. Economists use this information to gauge the relative strength of a country's economy. When exports are higher than imports, it tends to boost GDP. In the opposite scenario, it creates a trade deficit.Questions about this page
Is 1.03x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Balance of Trade do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range POL (prev. MATIC) moved in after past Balance of Trade releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.