The release
Released by the Bureau of Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis on 5 April 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The deficit widened to $69.2B for February 2023, from $68.8B (The International Trade Balance in Goods and Services).
It arrived at the same moment as International Imports in Goods and Services and International Exports in Goods and Services, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How POL (prev. MATIC) moved
POL (prev. MATIC) was at $1.1500 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.87% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.74% of its price, against 0.87% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
POL (prev. MATIC)'s volume ratio was 3.93x, against a typical 1.34x. Its volatility ratio could not be measured: the price barely moved through the rest of the day, so there is no ordinary quarter hour to compare against. The ratio compares the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Balance of Trade releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved POL (prev. MATIC) less than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 0.91x across 23, against 1.10x across 46. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision.
Its record
Across 69 Balance of Trade releases since 2021, POL (prev. MATIC)'s median volatility ratio is 1.03x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 21,823 POL |
| 5 minutes | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -0.88% | 0.87% | 0.00% | 698,526 POL |
| 10 minutes | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -0.88% | 0.87% | 0.87% | 1.338M POL |
| 15 minutes | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 0.00% | 0.87% | 0.87% | 1.57M POL |
| 30 minutes | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.15 | 0.00% | 1.72% | 0.87% | 3.15M POL |
| 1 hour | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -0.88% | 1.72% | 0.87% | 5.067M POL |
| 2 hours | 1.16 | 1.13 | 1.13 | -1.77% | 2.59% | 0.87% | 10.1M POL |
| 4 hours | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.13 | -1.77% | 3.45% | 1.72% | 18.161M POL |
| 6 hours | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.13 | -1.77% | 3.45% | 1.72% | 21.426M POL |
| 8 hours | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.13 | -1.77% | 3.45% | 2.56% | 24.208M POL |
| 12 hours | 1.16 | 1.12 | 1.14 | -0.88% | 3.45% | 2.56% | 29.253M POL |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Balance of Trade | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.37x | 1.10x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 4.47x | 1.25x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.27x | 1.07x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 3.37x | 1.08x | Exceptional |
| Solana | 3.67x | 1.17x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 1.65x | 1.15x | Strong |
| TRON | 2.98x | 1.12x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 3.19x | 1.10x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 1.68x | 1.12x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.52x | 1.18x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 2.98x | 1.09x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 2.39x | 1.01x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 2.79x | 1.26x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 2.21x | 1.04x | Exceptional |
| Uniswap | 3.00x | 1.18x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 3.51x | 1.03x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 3.31x | 1.13x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.98x | 1.07x | Strong |
| Aptos | 4.78x | 1.19x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 3.56x | 1.07x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | Not measured | 1.03x | - |
| Filecoin | 3.99x | 1.01x | Exceptional |
What is the International Trade Balance in Goods and Services?
The balance of trade (BOT) measures economic transactions between a nation and its trading partners, showing the difference between the value of a country's imports and exports for a given period. The BEA and Census Bureau reports on the U.S. balance of payments (BOP), covering goods and services that move in and out of the country. Economists use this information to gauge the relative strength of a country's economy. When exports are higher than imports, it tends to boost GDP. In the opposite scenario, it creates a trade deficit.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.