Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 16 September 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. Retail Sales came in at 0.6% for August 2025, against 0.5% in July 2025. Retail sales are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Import Price Index and Export Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.87x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.04x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $115,327.59 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.09% higher, and an hour later 0.11% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.26% of its price, against 0.13% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out the day before the Federal Reserve's 17 September rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.87x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
About Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
115,026.00Close
116,687.4524h Change
1661.45 (1.42%)24h High
116,964.2724h Low
114,737.1124h Volume
10,942 BTCUS Retail Sales
Bureau of Census
16th September, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 115305.85 | 115327.60 | 115305.85 | 115327.60 | 0.02% | 0.02% | 3 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 115363.49 | 115311.35 | 115363.48 | 0.03% | 0.05% | 7 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 115319.22 | 115360.04 | 115292.92 | 115327.60 | 0.01% | 0.06% | 21 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 115433.64 | 115311.35 | 115395.23 | 0.06% | 0.11% | 33 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 115432.51 | 115440.00 | 115292.92 | 115327.60 | -0.09% | 0.13% | 56 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 115459.99 | 115311.35 | 115405.60 | 0.07% | 0.13% | 62 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 115368.61 | 115440.00 | 115292.92 | 115327.60 | -0.04% | 0.13% | 78 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 115459.99 | 115311.35 | 115427.01 | 0.09% | 0.13% | 92 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 115287.84 | 115440.00 | 115287.38 | 115327.60 | 0.03% | 0.13% | 120 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 115460.20 | 115311.35 | 115439.36 | 0.10% | 0.13% | 177 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 115328.80 | 115440.00 | 115287.38 | 115327.60 | 0.00% | 0.13% | 250 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 115558.06 | 115262.31 | 115459.73 | 0.11% | 0.26% | 433 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 115511.04 | 115549.43 | 115206.15 | 115327.60 | -0.16% | 0.30% | 524 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 115558.06 | 114737.11 | 115004.00 | -0.28% | 0.71% | 1,650 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 115755.28 | 115756.46 | 115206.15 | 115327.60 | -0.37% | 0.48% | 1,202 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 116000.00 | 114737.11 | 115858.01 | 0.46% | 1.09% | 2,952 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 115724.51 | 115981.17 | 115206.15 | 115327.60 | -0.34% | 0.67% | 1,923 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 116870.76 | 114737.11 | 116478.36 | 0.99% | 1.83% | 4,754 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 115026.00 | 116009.62 | 114930.00 | 115755.28 | 0.63% | 0.93% | 2,903 BTC |
| During | 115755.28 | 116000.00 | 114737.11 | 115858.01 | 0.09% | 1.09% | 4,155 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 115026.00 | 116009.62 | 114930.00 | 115327.60 | 0.26% | 0.93% | 4,105 BTC |
| During | 115327.59 | 116964.27 | 114737.11 | 116687.45 | 1.17% | 1.90% | 6,837 BTC |
