BTC Volatility Analysis for Retail Sales Ex Autos, 17th October 2024

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census on 17 October 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles came in at 0.9% for September 2024, against -0.2% in August 2024. Retail sales excluding autos are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.23x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales Ex Autos release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.75x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $67,006.07 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.16% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.39% of its price, against 0.53% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Retail Sales Ex Autos releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.23x compares with 1.54x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending excluding the automobile sector. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

67,769.43

Close

67,372.01

24h Change

-397.42 (-0.59%)

24h High

67,939.40

24h Low

66,666.00

24h Volume

25,479 BTC

US Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles

Bureau of Census

17th October, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before66990.0067010.0066989.9967006.070.02%0.03%11 BTC
During67006.0767036.0066989.9567009.890.01%0.07%47 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before67015.6467024.0066980.0067006.07-0.01%0.07%52 BTC
During67006.0767171.4366989.9567140.000.20%0.27%166 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before67030.0067097.9866980.0067006.07-0.04%0.18%151 BTC
During67006.0767171.4366986.0067165.830.24%0.28%274 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before66924.0067097.9866872.0067006.070.12%0.34%217 BTC
During67006.0767184.0066986.0067113.990.16%0.29%354 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before66872.4467097.9866799.9067006.070.20%0.44%526 BTC
During67006.0767184.0066986.0067171.420.25%0.29%473 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before66911.9867097.9866741.0967006.070.14%0.53%1,623 BTC
During67006.0767218.0066960.0067012.770.01%0.38%865 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before67100.0067285.0066741.0967006.07-0.14%0.81%3,272 BTC
During67006.0767354.9466666.0066943.96-0.09%1.02%3,711 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before67290.9067530.0166741.0967006.07-0.43%1.17%4,995 BTC
During67006.0767680.0066666.0067333.330.49%1.50%6,966 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before67418.8567530.0166741.0967006.07-0.62%1.17%7,092 BTC
During67006.0767680.0066666.0066920.01-0.13%1.50%10,256 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before67769.4367939.4067087.3567290.89-0.71%1.25%6,227 BTC
During67290.9067680.0066666.0067333.330.06%1.50%11,960 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before67769.4367939.4066741.0967006.07-1.14%1.76%11,221 BTC
During67006.0767680.0066666.0067372.010.54%1.50%14,258 BTC

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