BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 15th November 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 15 November 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at -0.4% for October 2023, against 0.3% in September 2023. Producer prices are falling, after a rise.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.97x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.30x, against a typical 2.30x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $36,065.38 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.09% lower, and an hour later 0.19% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.56% of its price, against 0.98% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.97x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the November 2023 PPI release. Volatility reached only 0.97x in the quarter hour after the print, compared with the 2.08x median for PPI events since 2021. Volume rose to 1.30x against a typical 2.30x. Ratios below 1.5x indicate the market barely noticed the release.

The price path matched the low volatility reading. Bitcoin traded at $36,065.38 at the moment of release, moved 0.09 percent lower within fifteen minutes and stood 0.19 percent higher one hour later. Its high-to-low range in the hour after the release narrowed to 0.56 percent of price from 0.98 percent in the hour before.

The release arrived alongside Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Core PPI, so the measured response reflects the combined arrival. It also fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, where the median volatility ratio since 2021 has been 2.18x across 29 events versus 2.05x across 41 events at other times. The 0.97x outcome therefore sat below even the benchmark for releases at comparable distances from policy meetings.

Traders preparing for the next PPI print can observe that quiet reactions have occurred in similar non-Fed-timed settings without altering the longer record of how the event typically affects Bitcoin.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

35,560.00

37,615.71

24h Change

2055.71 (5.47%)

24h High

37,980.00

24h Low

35,360.00

24h Volume

55,297 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

15th November, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	36061.01	36072.17	36059.44	36065.39	0.01%	0.04%	21 BTC
During	36065.38	36115.61	36065.37	36072.00	0.02%	0.14%	83 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	36107.18	36149.37	36058.77	36065.39	-0.12%	0.25%	122 BTC
During	36065.38	36115.61	36002.35	36062.88	-0.01%	0.31%	255 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	36072.83	36149.37	36058.77	36065.39	-0.02%	0.25%	214 BTC
During	36065.38	36118.86	36002.35	36041.10	-0.07%	0.32%	377 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	36104.01	36149.37	36044.00	36065.39	-0.11%	0.29%	399 BTC
During	36065.38	36118.86	36002.35	36033.48	-0.09%	0.32%	561 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	36190.71	36223.50	36044.00	36065.39	-0.35%	0.50%	902 BTC
During	36065.38	36149.99	36002.35	36099.87	0.10%	0.41%	913 BTC

1 Hour
Before	36324.31	36397.30	36044.00	36065.39	-0.72%	0.97%	1,968 BTC
During	36065.38	36205.23	36002.35	36135.00	0.19%	0.56%	1,609 BTC

2 Hours
Before	36172.01	36397.30	36044.00	36065.39	-0.30%	0.97%	4,487 BTC
During	36065.38	36263.63	36002.35	36208.50	0.40%	0.72%	3,472 BTC

4 Hours
Before	35928.09	36397.30	35748.74	36065.39	0.38%	1.78%	7,711 BTC
During	36065.38	36554.99	36002.35	36405.59	0.93%	1.51%	7,663 BTC

6 Hours
Before	35628.00	36397.30	35551.53	36065.39	1.21%	2.32%	11,130 BTC
During	36065.38	37774.14	36002.35	37432.00	3.65%	4.69%	22,546 BTC

8 Hours
Before	35560.00	35938.97	35360.00	35928.08	1.02%	1.61%	9,652 BTC
During	35928.09	36554.99	35748.74	36405.59	1.31%	2.21%	15,374 BTC

12 Hours
Before	35560.00	36397.30	35360.00	36065.39	1.40%	2.85%	17,363 BTC
During	36065.38	37980.00	36002.35	37615.71	4.12%	5.21%	37,933 BTC