BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 13th December 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 December 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.0% for November 2023, against -0.4% in October 2023. Producer prices are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.85x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.16x, against a typical 2.30x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $41,371.10 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.17% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.44% of its price, against 0.59% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one came out on the day of the Federal Reserve's 13 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.85x compares with 2.18x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin showed almost no response to the November Producer Price Index release. Its volatility ratio reached only 0.85x in the quarter hour after the 8:30 AM print, well below the 2.08x median recorded across PPI releases since 2021. Volume rose just 1.16x against the usual 2.30x, confirming the market barely registered the data. The coin traded at $41,371.10 on the release, rose 0.17 percent in the first fifteen minutes, and sat unchanged an hour later. Its hourly range narrowed to 0.44 percent from 0.59 percent beforehand.

The muted outcome stands out because the figures arrived on the day of the Federal Reserve's December rate decision. Releases of this type in the two weeks before a policy meeting have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 2.18x. The 0.85x reading therefore fell short of what the timing alone would normally generate. Traders watching the next PPI release can note that even a same-day Fed decision does not guarantee movement when the data surprise is small.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

41,004.80

Close

42,782.02

24h Change

1777.22 (4.15%)

24h High

43,475.20

24h Low

40,555.00

24h Volume

45,934 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

13th December, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before41360.6541381.5041360.6441371.100.03%0.05%36 BTC
During41371.1041438.7141371.1041420.010.12%0.16%57 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before41311.0941381.5041308.8741371.100.15%0.18%97 BTC
During41371.1041476.9441371.1041401.090.07%0.26%208 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before41288.6641381.5041288.6541371.100.20%0.22%202 BTC
During41371.1041476.9441365.0441393.180.05%0.27%332 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before41333.7041381.5041277.6141371.100.09%0.25%341 BTC
During41371.1041476.9441365.0441443.280.17%0.27%441 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before41209.2641381.5041184.6041371.100.39%0.48%919 BTC
During41371.1041488.6541365.0441466.000.23%0.30%777 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before41228.9641381.5041139.1341371.100.34%0.59%1,353 BTC
During41371.1041490.0041305.9541366.45-0.01%0.44%1,655 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before41143.9941381.5040953.1741371.100.55%1.04%3,120 BTC
During41371.1041911.1041305.9541762.010.94%1.44%4,544 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before41165.8041381.5040953.1741371.100.50%1.04%4,815 BTC
During41371.1042215.6341305.9542068.961.66%2.15%9,882 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before41198.4141381.5040953.1741371.100.42%1.04%6,884 BTC
During41371.1042471.1041305.9542389.222.40%2.74%14,521 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before41004.8041280.0040555.0041165.790.39%1.76%11,455 BTC
During41165.8042215.6340953.1742068.962.15%2.99%14,697 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before41004.8041381.5040555.0041371.100.89%2.00%16,270 BTC
During41371.1043475.2041305.9542782.023.30%4.99%29,664 BTC

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