BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 11th May 2023

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.20x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.60x, against a typical 2.30x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $27,537.65 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.66% lower, and an hour later 0.66% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.25% of its price, against 0.64% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 11 May 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.2% for April 2023, against -0.3% in March 2023. Producer prices are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.20x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin recorded an exceptional reaction to the May 2023 PPI release. Volatility reached 4.20x against the 2.08x median across 70 PPI prints since 2021, while volume expanded to 4.60x from the typical 2.30x. Both ratios measure the quarter hour of the release against an ordinary quarter hour the same day. The outcome exceeded the levels observed in releases at comparable distances from Federal Reserve decisions.

Bitcoin stood at $27,537.65 when the figure appeared at 8:30 AM EDT. It declined 0.66% within fifteen minutes and remained 0.66% lower after one hour. The high-to-low range widened to 1.25% of price in the hour after the release from 0.64% in the hour before. The 0.2% month-over-month PPI reading for April reversed March's -0.3% decline and coincided with core PPI plus initial and continued claims.

Timing supplied no special context. PPI releases inside the two weeks before an FOMC meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.18x since 2021, virtually the same as the 2.05x median outside that window. This print arrived 33 days before the June decision yet still surpassed both benchmarks.

Traders watching future PPI releases may observe that the event has generated outsized Bitcoin moves even when positioned well away from policy meetings. The overall median remains 2.08x, yet the record shows that larger volatility episodes can occur independently of proximity to rate decisions.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

27,542.78

26,956.50

24h Change

-586.28 (-2.17%)

24h High

27,630.14

24h Low

26,702.05

24h Volume

47,509 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

11th May, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	27510.62	27550.11	27510.62	27537.64	0.10%	0.14%	45 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	27526.04	27526.04	-0.04%	0.38%	391 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	27494.01	27550.11	27487.53	27537.64	0.16%	0.23%	126 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	27459.58	27502.86	-0.13%	0.62%	767 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	27514.39	27550.11	27483.88	27537.64	0.08%	0.24%	245 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	27436.66	27442.27	-0.35%	0.70%	1,097 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	27515.85	27551.57	27483.88	27537.64	0.08%	0.25%	417 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	27300.82	27355.87	-0.66%	1.19%	1,590 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	27405.62	27551.57	27390.00	27537.64	0.48%	0.59%	937 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	27300.82	27399.00	-0.51%	1.19%	2,169 BTC

1 Hour
Before	27434.16	27551.57	27375.02	27537.64	0.38%	0.64%	1,417 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	27285.70	27356.46	-0.66%	1.25%	3,483 BTC

2 Hours
Before	27444.83	27551.57	27375.02	27537.64	0.34%	0.64%	2,391 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	27011.36	27217.05	-1.18%	2.24%	8,172 BTC

4 Hours
Before	27406.31	27551.57	27345.07	27537.64	0.48%	0.75%	4,713 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	26952.00	27130.66	-1.50%	2.45%	14,729 BTC

6 Hours
Before	27496.20	27553.21	27257.98	27537.64	0.15%	1.07%	7,833 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	26742.90	26894.85	-2.39%	3.21%	23,095 BTC

8 Hours
Before	27542.78	27579.67	27257.98	27406.30	-0.50%	1.17%	10,751 BTC
During	27406.31	27630.14	26952.00	27130.66	-1.02%	2.45%	19,442 BTC

12 Hours
Before	27542.78	27579.67	27257.98	27537.64	-0.02%	1.17%	15,464 BTC
During	27537.65	27630.14	26702.05	26956.50	-2.16%	3.36%	32,045 BTC