BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 13th April 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 April 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at -0.3% for March 2023, against -0.1% in February 2023. Producer prices are falling faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $30,181.08 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.1% higher, and an hour later 0.25% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.65% of its price, against 0.32% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.58x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.71x, against a typical 2.30x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.58x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a volatility ratio of 2.58x in the quarter hour after the PPI release, modestly above the 2.08x median recorded across 70 prior PPI prints since 2021. The price rose 0.1 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.25 percent after one hour, with the hourly range expanding to 0.65 percent from 0.32 percent beforehand. This outcome aligns with Clometrix's classification of the reaction as ordinary for the event.

This release fell outside the two-week window ahead of the next Federal Reserve decision, a period that has historically produced a median volatility ratio of 2.18x for Bitcoin. The observed 2.58x exceeded the 2.05x median for releases at other times.

Traders reviewing this episode may note that PPI releases have shown limited sensitivity to their proximity to policy meetings. The volume ratio reached 2.71x against a typical 2.30x, reinforcing that activity levels responded in line with the event's established pattern.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

29,949.96

Close

30,399.11

24h Change

449.15 (1.48%)

24h High

30,595.00

24h Low

29,945.64

24h Volume

52,257 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

13th April, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time Open High Low Close Change Amplitude Volume
 
1 Minute
Before30181.3030181.3030176.3630181.070.00%0.02%22 BTC
During30181.0830269.0530164.2330212.280.10%0.35%262 BTC
 
5 Minutes
Before30177.9230199.9930176.3630181.070.01%0.08%157 BTC
During30181.0830269.0530134.1630187.800.02%0.45%594 BTC
 
10 Minutes
Before30203.2830249.0030176.3530181.07-0.07%0.24%374 BTC
During30181.0830269.0530134.1630188.350.02%0.45%798 BTC
 
15 Minutes
Before30176.5430249.0030175.9430181.070.02%0.24%635 BTC
During30181.0830269.0530134.1630211.700.10%0.45%1,101 BTC
 
30 Minutes
Before30159.8130249.0030159.4730181.070.07%0.30%948 BTC
During30181.0830303.6430134.1630272.140.30%0.56%2,085 BTC
 
1 Hour
Before30202.5030249.0030151.0030181.07-0.07%0.32%1,604 BTC
During30181.0830328.9130134.1630257.600.25%0.64%3,447 BTC
 
2 Hours
Before30204.7430249.0030151.0030181.07-0.08%0.32%3,407 BTC
During30181.0830328.9130134.1630300.800.40%0.64%5,713 BTC
 
4 Hours
Before30070.9930374.8730052.9930181.070.36%1.06%11,114 BTC
During30181.0830595.0030134.1630357.660.58%1.51%15,251 BTC
 
6 Hours
Before30071.0330374.8729982.9330181.070.36%1.29%14,565 BTC
During30181.0830595.0030134.1630427.170.81%1.51%20,250 BTC
 
8 Hours
Before29949.9630200.0029945.6430071.000.40%0.84%10,490 BTC
During30070.9930595.0030052.9930357.660.94%1.77%26,365 BTC
 
12 Hours
Before29949.9630374.8729945.6430181.070.77%1.41%21,604 BTC
During30181.0830595.0030134.1630399.110.72%1.51%30,653 BTC

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