BTC Volatility Analysis for PPI, 11th April 2024

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.17x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.20x, against a typical 2.30x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $69,992.75 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.19% higher, and an hour later 1.04% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.65% of its price, against 0.98% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 11 April 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.1% for March 2024, against 0.5% in February 2024. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.17x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.

What it means

Bitcoin's reaction to the April 2024 PPI release stood out as exceptional against the event's established record. Volatility reached 5.17x the normal quarter-hour level, more than double the 2.08x median across 70 prior PPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 7.20x against a typical 2.30x. Price rose 1.19 percent in the first fifteen minutes from the $69,992.75 level and held a 1.04 percent gain after one hour, while the hourly high-low range widened to 1.65 percent from 0.98 percent beforehand.

Coincident Releases and Timing Context

The move occurred alongside core PPI, initial claims and continued claims, so the measured response reflects the combined arrival. This PPI print fell outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision, where the historical median volatility ratio has been 2.18x. The 5.17x outcome therefore exceeded what the release's timing alone would have indicated.

Traders reviewing future PPI releases may note that even prints arriving well clear of policy meetings can still generate outsized volatility and volume when the data surprise aligns with other indicators on the same line. The record shows coincidence rather than isolated causation, leaving open how much any single component contributed.

About Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

70,364.03

70,260.01

24h Change

-104.02 (-0.15%)

24h High

71,305.89

24h Low

69,567.21

24h Volume

31,877 BTC

US Producer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

11th April, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	70072.82	70072.82	69867.76	69992.76	-0.11%	0.29%	93 BTC
During	69992.75	70412.63	69943.97	70339.61	0.49%	0.67%	145 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	70203.67	70203.68	69867.76	69992.76	-0.30%	0.48%	139 BTC
During	69992.75	70831.77	69943.97	70710.01	1.01%	1.25%	634 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	70240.85	70250.10	69867.76	69992.76	-0.35%	0.54%	284 BTC
During	69992.75	70831.77	69943.97	70788.00	1.12%	1.25%	1,032 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	70144.55	70299.25	69867.76	69992.76	-0.22%	0.61%	378 BTC
During	69992.75	71100.00	69943.97	70824.01	1.17%	1.63%	1,834 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	69983.16	70299.25	69867.76	69992.76	0.01%	0.61%	776 BTC
During	69992.75	71100.00	69943.97	70858.83	1.22%	1.63%	2,470 BTC

1 Hour
Before	70553.14	70553.14	69867.76	69992.76	-0.80%	0.97%	1,967 BTC
During	69992.75	71100.00	69943.97	70722.08	1.03%	1.63%	3,421 BTC

2 Hours
Before	70687.17	70766.02	69867.76	69992.76	-0.99%	1.27%	2,962 BTC
During	69992.75	71100.00	69599.23	69828.00	-0.24%	2.11%	8,021 BTC

4 Hours
Before	70828.02	71256.27	69867.76	69992.76	-1.19%	1.95%	5,405 BTC
During	69992.75	71100.00	69567.21	69796.02	-0.28%	2.16%	11,147 BTC

6 Hours
Before	70669.95	71305.89	69867.76	69992.76	-0.97%	2.02%	7,860 BTC
During	69992.75	71100.00	69567.21	70122.70	0.19%	2.16%	13,641 BTC

8 Hours
Before	70364.03	71305.89	70285.13	70828.02	0.66%	1.43%	7,729 BTC
During	70828.02	71256.27	69567.21	69796.02	-1.48%	2.37%	16,552 BTC

12 Hours
Before	70364.03	71305.89	69867.76	69992.76	-0.53%	2.02%	13,134 BTC
During	69992.75	71100.00	69567.21	70260.01	0.38%	2.16%	18,743 BTC