ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 27th October 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 27 October 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for September 2023, against 0.4% in August 2023. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,780.19 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.54% higher, and an hour later 0.79% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.03% of its price, against 0.64% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.19x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.11x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.19x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum recorded a contained advance after the Personal Income release, climbing 0.54 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.79 percent within the hour. The one-hour high-low range reached 1.03 percent of price, up from 0.64 percent beforehand, which translated into a volatility ratio of 2.19 times the quiet quarter-hour benchmark. That outcome sits just above the 1.80 times median observed across sixty-nine Personal Income prints since 2021, placing the move inside the ordinary band for the event.

The data arrived alongside the PCE and core PCE prints, five days before the Federal Reserve's November policy decision. Releases in the two-week window ahead of meetings have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86 times for Ethereum, and this instance cleared that level by a modest margin without departing from the broader distribution.

Volume expanded 2.11 times relative to a normal quarter-hour, almost identical to the 2.15 times typical for the series. The combined reaction therefore remained consistent with the event's historical profile even though multiple indicators were released simultaneously.

Traders monitoring the next Personal Income print can note that proximity to a policy meeting has not, on its own, produced outsized volatility in Ethereum; the record shows responses clustered around the same central tendency whether or not a decision is imminent.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

1,801.60

1,781.71

24h Change

-19.89 (-1.12%)

24h High

1,801.66

24h Low

1,744.66

24h Volume

273,241 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

27th October, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	1780.96	1781.98	1779.39	1780.19	-0.04%	0.15%	377 ETH
During	1780.19	1783.79	1778.52	1782.16	0.11%	0.30%	736 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	1783.64	1783.64	1779.39	1780.19	-0.19%	0.24%	1,073 ETH
During	1780.19	1785.45	1778.52	1785.44	0.29%	0.39%	1,699 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	1786.16	1786.80	1779.39	1780.19	-0.34%	0.41%	1,889 ETH
During	1780.19	1786.80	1778.52	1785.27	0.28%	0.46%	3,221 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	1781.71	1786.88	1779.39	1780.19	-0.09%	0.42%	2,976 ETH
During	1780.19	1789.82	1778.52	1789.82	0.54%	0.63%	4,385 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	1781.34	1786.88	1778.34	1780.19	-0.06%	0.48%	5,879 ETH
During	1780.19	1796.84	1778.52	1792.19	0.67%	1.02%	9,014 ETH

1 Hour
Before	1778.33	1786.88	1775.44	1780.19	0.10%	0.64%	13,609 ETH
During	1780.19	1796.84	1778.52	1794.31	0.79%	1.02%	13,807 ETH

2 Hours
Before	1785.95	1786.95	1775.44	1780.19	-0.32%	0.64%	22,267 ETH
During	1780.19	1796.84	1776.67	1776.98	-0.18%	1.12%	39,861 ETH

4 Hours
Before	1781.68	1791.37	1775.44	1780.19	-0.08%	0.89%	37,048 ETH
During	1780.19	1796.84	1770.25	1780.15	0.00%	1.48%	74,267 ETH

6 Hours
Before	1793.08	1796.00	1775.44	1780.19	-0.72%	1.14%	55,097 ETH
During	1780.19	1796.84	1744.66	1752.08	-1.60%	2.90%	127,510 ETH

8 Hours
Before	1801.60	1801.66	1772.83	1781.67	-1.12%	1.60%	64,603 ETH
During	1781.68	1796.84	1770.25	1780.15	-0.09%	1.48%	111,314 ETH

12 Hours
Before	1801.60	1801.66	1772.83	1780.19	-1.20%	1.60%	101,650 ETH
During	1780.19	1796.84	1744.66	1781.71	0.09%	2.90%	171,591 ETH