Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 November 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for October 2023, against 0.4% in September 2023. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.94x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.32x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,046.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.64% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.12% of its price, against 0.47% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 13 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.94x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the cluster of PCE, Personal Income and claims releases that included Personal Income. Its volatility ratio reached only 0.94x in the quarter hour after the prints, well below the 1.80x median recorded for Personal Income events since 2021. Volume expanded just 1.32x against a typical 2.15x, confirming the market barely registered the data.
It remained unchanged fifteen minutes later and sat 0.64 percent lower after one hour, while the high-to-low range in that hour measured 1.12 percent of spot compared with 0.47 percent in the preceding hour.
The releases arrived thirteen days before the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting. Releases of this type in the two weeks before a decision have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum since 2021, yet this instance produced 0.94x. The subdued outcome therefore stood out against both the event’s usual magnitude and its pre-Fed timing.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,027.13Close
2,073.6024h Change
46.47 (2.24%)24h High
2,074.5824h Low
2,020.8524h Volume
261,074 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
30th November, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2047.70 | 2047.70 | 2046.38 | 2046.99 | -0.03% | 0.06% | 140 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2047.88 | 2045.73 | 2046.83 | -0.01% | 0.10% | 570 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2046.03 | 2047.96 | 2045.34 | 2046.99 | 0.05% | 0.13% | 671 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2047.88 | 2044.07 | 2044.88 | -0.10% | 0.19% | 1,019 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2040.98 | 2047.96 | 2040.97 | 2046.99 | 0.29% | 0.34% | 1,851 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2047.88 | 2043.63 | 2045.26 | -0.08% | 0.21% | 1,746 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2040.05 | 2047.96 | 2038.27 | 2046.99 | 0.34% | 0.47% | 3,198 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2047.88 | 2043.63 | 2046.08 | -0.04% | 0.21% | 2,513 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2045.38 | 2047.96 | 2038.27 | 2046.99 | 0.08% | 0.47% | 5,866 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2048.84 | 2031.01 | 2035.45 | -0.57% | 0.87% | 9,380 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2046.71 | 2047.96 | 2038.27 | 2046.99 | 0.01% | 0.47% | 9,803 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2048.84 | 2026.00 | 2033.81 | -0.65% | 1.11% | 17,934 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2034.17 | 2052.32 | 2034.17 | 2046.99 | 0.63% | 0.88% | 25,943 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2048.84 | 2025.02 | 2031.84 | -0.75% | 1.16% | 33,252 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2026.26 | 2052.32 | 2025.06 | 2046.99 | 1.01% | 1.33% | 37,606 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2048.84 | 2025.02 | 2037.09 | -0.49% | 1.16% | 57,239 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2035.92 | 2052.32 | 2020.85 | 2046.99 | 0.54% | 1.53% | 55,882 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2048.84 | 2025.02 | 2042.42 | -0.22% | 1.16% | 69,872 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2027.13 | 2044.19 | 2020.85 | 2026.26 | -0.04% | 1.14% | 90,823 ETH |
| During | 2026.26 | 2052.32 | 2025.02 | 2037.09 | 0.53% | 1.33% | 94,845 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2027.13 | 2052.32 | 2020.85 | 2046.99 | 0.97% | 1.53% | 128,429 ETH |
| During | 2046.99 | 2074.58 | 2025.02 | 2073.60 | 1.28% | 2.39% | 132,644 ETH |
