Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 February 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 10.3% for January 2021, against 0.8% in December 2020. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.71x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.67x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,460.68 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% higher, and an hour later 2.98% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.24% of its price, against 2.51% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.71x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
The Personal Income print for January 2021 reached 10.3 percent month-over-month, yet Ethereum posted a quiet reaction with volatility at 0.71 times a normal quarter-hour and volume at 0.67 times. The release arrived together with the PCE and core PCE figures, so the measured response reflects the combined data. Both ratios remained below the 1.5 times threshold that marks any meaningful move.
Ethereum stood at $1,460.68 at the 8:30 AM release. It advanced 0.22 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 2.98 percent after one hour. The high-to-low range expanded only to 3.24 percent of price in that hour, compared with 2.51 percent in the preceding hour.
This release fell eighteen days before the March FOMC meeting, outside the two-week window where Personal Income prints have shown a median volatility ratio of 1.86 times. The observed 0.71 times therefore sat below the 1.77 times median recorded for releases at other times. Traders monitoring the next Personal Income report can note that timing relative to the Fed has not produced consistently larger moves for Ethereum and that large headline prints have coincided with subdued volatility in at least this instance.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,491.31Close
1,496.4024h Change
5.09 (0.34%)24h High
1,562.2524h Low
1,400.0024h Volume
1.266M ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
26th February, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1463.36 | 1463.36 | 1459.70 | 1461.00 | -0.16% | 0.25% | 1,241 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1464.27 | 1459.49 | 1463.79 | 0.21% | 0.33% | 1,023 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1465.55 | 1465.57 | 1459.70 | 1461.00 | -0.31% | 0.40% | 4,077 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1469.22 | 1459.49 | 1467.37 | 0.46% | 0.66% | 3,388 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1466.61 | 1468.83 | 1459.70 | 1461.00 | -0.38% | 0.62% | 6,701 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1471.99 | 1459.49 | 1466.41 | 0.39% | 0.85% | 5,418 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1465.94 | 1471.06 | 1459.70 | 1461.00 | -0.34% | 0.77% | 9,511 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1471.99 | 1459.49 | 1463.87 | 0.22% | 0.85% | 7,597 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1483.73 | 1489.80 | 1459.70 | 1461.00 | -1.56% | 2.02% | 20,358 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1478.40 | 1457.76 | 1460.02 | -0.05% | 1.40% | 14,442 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1493.26 | 1496.43 | 1459.70 | 1461.00 | -2.21% | 2.45% | 34,151 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1504.74 | 1457.46 | 1504.18 | 2.89% | 3.14% | 43,511 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1461.08 | 1496.43 | 1452.18 | 1461.00 | -0.01% | 2.96% | 75,806 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1530.65 | 1457.46 | 1505.50 | 2.98% | 4.78% | 100,646 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1458.49 | 1496.43 | 1452.18 | 1461.00 | 0.17% | 2.96% | 162,178 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1562.25 | 1457.46 | 1538.07 | 5.03% | 6.71% | 199,136 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1431.52 | 1496.43 | 1400.00 | 1461.00 | 2.02% | 6.44% | 326,917 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1562.25 | 1457.46 | 1512.08 | 3.40% | 6.71% | 271,547 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1491.31 | 1530.76 | 1400.00 | 1458.77 | -2.23% | 8.54% | 551,892 ETH |
| During | 1458.49 | 1562.25 | 1452.18 | 1538.07 | 5.17% | 7.05% | 361,314 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1491.31 | 1530.76 | 1400.00 | 1461.00 | -2.07% | 8.54% | 714,070 ETH |
| During | 1460.68 | 1562.25 | 1410.33 | 1496.40 | 2.39% | 9.72% | 552,042 ETH |
