The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 9 April 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at -0.1% for February 2026, against 0.4% in January 2026. Personal income is falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 0.84x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.71x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $71,275.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.09% lower, and an hour later 0.23% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.41% of its price, against 0.41% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.84x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin showed little response to the Personal Income release and the bundle of data that arrived with it. The volatility ratio reached 0.84x in the quarter hour after publication, well below the 2.09x median recorded across 69 prior Personal Income events since 2021. Volume stayed at 0.71x against a typical 2.55x, confirming the market registered almost no change in activity.
Price action remained contained. Bitcoin stood at $71,275.99 at the 8:30 AM release and moved 0.09 percent lower within fifteen minutes and 0.23 percent lower after one hour. The high-to-low range in the following hour matched the range seen in the hour before at 0.41 percent.
Timing contributed to the muted outcome. The release fell nineteen days before the Federal Reserve's April 29 decision, outside the two-week window in which Personal Income prints have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x. Against the 1.81x median for releases farther from policy meetings, the 0.84x reading here fell short of what the calendar alone would have suggested.
Traders may note that clustered data and distance from rate decisions can keep even a softer income print from generating meaningful movement. The next Personal Income release will again test whether proximity to policy meetings restores the larger volatility ratios seen in the historical record.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.41 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 0.84x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 71294.50 | 71252.79 | 71267.65 | -0.01% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 8 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 71294.50 | 71172.58 | 71230.01 | -0.06% | 0.17% | 0.31% | 26 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 71294.50 | 71121.14 | 71149.30 | -0.18% | 0.24% | 0.40% | 67 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 71298.31 | 71121.14 | 71212.96 | -0.09% | 0.25% | 0.40% | 108 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 71305.04 | 71100.00 | 71279.63 | 0.01% | 0.29% | 0.40% | 182 BTC |
| 1 hour | 71355.24 | 71066.50 | 71109.22 | -0.23% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 307 BTC |
| 2 hours | 71355.24 | 70522.77 | 70633.10 | -0.91% | 1.17% | 0.59% | 1,172 BTC |
| 4 hours | 72399.00 | 70522.77 | 72062.61 | 1.09% | 2.59% | 0.83% | 4,678 BTC |
| 6 hours | 72550.00 | 70522.77 | 71908.44 | 0.88% | 2.79% | 1.07% | 7,039 BTC |
| 8 hours | 72399.00 | 70522.77 | 72062.61 | 1.50% | 2.59% | 1.03% | 6,585 BTC |
| 12 hours | 73145.00 | 70522.77 | 71836.95 | 0.78% | 3.58% | 1.55% | 11,782 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.84x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.00x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.00x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.28x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.45x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.19x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 3.33x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 1.50x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.02x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.05x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.09x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 0.93x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.23x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.52x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.68x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.00x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.03x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.94x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 0.85x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.02x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.29x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 0.98x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.25x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.29x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 0.84x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.