The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 22 January 2026 at 10:00 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for November 2025, against 0.4% in September 2025. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,941.32 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.12% of its price, against 1.59% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.86x, against 1.77x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.26x, against a typical 2.11x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 17, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 28 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.86x compares with 1.86x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.77x.
What it means
Ethereum registered an ordinary reaction to the January 2026 Personal Income release. Its volatility ratio of 1.86x stood close to the 1.80x median recorded across 69 releases of the same event since 2021. Volume rose to 4.26x against a typical 2.15x, while the price itself showed only modest movement.
The 0.3 percent November reading arrived alongside the Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures prints. Ethereum sat at $2,941.32 at the 10:00 AM release. It gained 0.22 percent in the first fifteen minutes and finished the hour unchanged, with the high-to-low range reaching 2.12 percent of price compared with 1.59 percent beforehand.
The release occurred six days before the Federal Reserve decision scheduled for 28 January. Clometrix data indicate that Personal Income releases in the two weeks before such decisions have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x, nearly identical to the 1.77x median observed at other times. The measured outcome matched that historical pattern exactly.
Traders observing the next release of this event may therefore treat proximity to a policy meeting as neutral for expected volatility, with the record showing no material difference in price range between the two timing windows.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 1.05 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.86x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2946.41 | 2936.14 | 2945.96 | 0.16% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 1,272 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2954.89 | 2936.14 | 2951.83 | 0.36% | 0.63% | 0.32% | 4,765 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2954.89 | 2936.14 | 2946.94 | 0.19% | 0.63% | 0.55% | 7,028 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2954.89 | 2936.14 | 2947.73 | 0.22% | 0.63% | 0.96% | 8,788 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2954.89 | 2907.61 | 2911.65 | -1.02% | 1.60% | 1.49% | 23,829 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2968.39 | 2906.02 | 2942.01 | 0.02% | 2.10% | 1.57% | 45,630 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2968.39 | 2906.02 | 2946.24 | 0.17% | 2.10% | 2.49% | 63,277 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2972.76 | 2906.02 | 2939.53 | -0.06% | 2.25% | 2.49% | 85,469 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2972.76 | 2906.02 | 2939.02 | -0.08% | 2.25% | 2.69% | 103,914 ETH |
| 8 hours | 3010.18 | 2906.02 | 2939.53 | -2.15% | 3.46% | 1.26% | 159,505 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2972.76 | 2906.02 | 2952.83 | 0.39% | 2.25% | 3.15% | 140,609 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.17x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.86x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.02x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.86x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.78x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.51x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| TRON | 1.37x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.84x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.50x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.02x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.34x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.17x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.23x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.85x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 1.03x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.68x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 1.02x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.01x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.42x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.18x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.02x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.99x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.30x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.02x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.86x a lot?
For a Personal Income release it is ordinary: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.