ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 31st July 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 July 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for June 2025, against -0.4% in May 2025. Personal income is rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.41x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.08x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $3,843.04 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.42% lower, and an hour later 1.08% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.35% of its price, against 0.51% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 30 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.41x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Ethereum registered a quiet response to the 31 July Personal Income release and the bundle of figures that arrived with it. Volatility reached 1.41x normal levels in the quarter hour after the print, well below the 1.80x median recorded for Personal Income releases since 2021. Volume stayed almost flat at 1.08x against the usual 2.15x. The market barely noticed the release.

Price action remained contained. It fell 0.42 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.08 percent within the hour, while the high-to-low range widened only to 1.35 percent from 0.51 percent in the preceding hour. The print itself showed Personal Income at 0.3 percent for June after -0.4 percent in May and arrived alongside PCE, core PCE and both initial and continued claims.

The timing placed the release the day after the Federal Reserve’s 30 July decision. Across the longer record, Personal Income releases inside the two-week window ahead of a policy meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, close to the 1.77x seen at other times. This instance produced 1.41x, below even the ordinary non-window median.

Traders watching the next Personal Income release can note that the combination of a modest surprise and post-decision timing produced no measurable lift in activity. The record offers no indication that similar releases will behave differently when they fall outside the immediate pre-Fed window.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

3,825.20

3,690.52

24h Change

-134.68 (-3.65%)

24h High

3,878.67

24h Low

3,658.18

24h Volume

529,706 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

31st July, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	3841.74	3843.16	3841.40	3843.03	0.03%	0.05%	292 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3834.75	3836.87	-0.16%	0.24%	990 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	3833.23	3843.16	3830.39	3843.03	0.26%	0.33%	1,606 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3823.17	3827.05	-0.42%	0.54%	2,898 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	3833.65	3843.16	3827.00	3843.03	0.24%	0.42%	2,679 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3823.17	3833.05	-0.26%	0.54%	3,827 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	3838.51	3843.16	3827.00	3843.03	0.12%	0.42%	3,958 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3823.17	3827.06	-0.42%	0.54%	4,928 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	3838.45	3845.09	3827.00	3843.03	0.12%	0.47%	6,736 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3822.95	3835.00	-0.21%	0.54%	9,056 ETH

1 Hour
Before	3837.14	3846.03	3826.30	3843.03	0.15%	0.51%	17,695 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3791.97	3801.55	-1.09%	1.35%	29,292 ETH

2 Hours
Before	3857.06	3864.58	3826.30	3843.03	-0.37%	0.99%	35,883 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3766.66	3774.88	-1.81%	2.01%	67,821 ETH

4 Hours
Before	3868.08	3873.28	3826.30	3843.03	-0.65%	1.21%	55,446 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3762.27	3794.41	-1.28%	2.12%	110,435 ETH

6 Hours
Before	3862.09	3878.67	3826.30	3843.03	-0.50%	1.35%	85,213 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3749.00	3776.78	-1.75%	2.47%	167,708 ETH

8 Hours
Before	3825.20	3878.67	3820.00	3868.08	1.11%	1.51%	151,084 ETH
During	3868.08	3873.28	3762.27	3794.41	-1.94%	2.87%	165,881 ETH

12 Hours
Before	3825.20	3878.67	3820.00	3843.03	0.46%	1.51%	206,530 ETH
During	3843.04	3843.80	3658.18	3690.52	-4.13%	4.83%	323,176 ETH