Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 27 June 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at -0.4% for May 2025, against 0.8% in April 2025. Personal income is falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,452.76 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.58% lower, and an hour later 1.09% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.24% of its price, against 0.58% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.16x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.99x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.16x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum's price response to the Personal Income release remained within the bounds of a typical reaction for this event. The token fell from $2,452.76 at the print to a level 0.58 percent lower fifteen minutes later and 1.09 percent lower after one hour. Its high-to-low range reached 1.24 percent of spot in the first hour after the data, compared with 0.58 percent in the hour before. The measured volatility ratio of 2.16x sat modestly above the 1.80x median recorded across sixty-nine prior Personal Income releases since 2021.
The release arrived together with the May Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE prints, so the observed move reflects the combined impact of all three figures. Personal Income printed -0.4 percent for the month, a reversal from the 0.8 percent gain recorded in April. Volume expanded 1.99x relative to a normal quarter-hour that day, close to the 2.15x typical for the event.
Clometrix classifies the overall reaction as ordinary. The volatility outcome aligned with the event's historical pattern rather than marking a departure from it.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,419.17Close
2,420.3624h Change
1.19 (0.05%)24h High
2,463.5424h Low
2,382.5324h Volume
382,202 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
27th June, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2453.93 | 2453.93 | 2452.66 | 2452.75 | -0.05% | 0.05% | 204 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2442.50 | 2442.74 | -0.41% | 0.43% | 1,422 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2454.97 | 2456.19 | 2452.66 | 2452.75 | -0.09% | 0.14% | 577 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2436.70 | 2445.16 | -0.31% | 0.66% | 4,864 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2451.32 | 2456.92 | 2451.31 | 2452.75 | 0.06% | 0.23% | 1,478 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2436.70 | 2441.46 | -0.46% | 0.66% | 5,567 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2449.57 | 2456.92 | 2447.87 | 2452.75 | 0.13% | 0.37% | 2,144 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2436.70 | 2438.56 | -0.58% | 0.66% | 6,276 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2447.25 | 2456.92 | 2444.09 | 2452.75 | 0.22% | 0.52% | 4,288 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2427.25 | 2429.97 | -0.94% | 1.05% | 11,921 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2443.94 | 2456.92 | 2442.74 | 2452.75 | 0.36% | 0.58% | 6,474 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2422.56 | 2425.91 | -1.11% | 1.24% | 18,027 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2451.46 | 2456.92 | 2442.74 | 2452.75 | 0.05% | 0.58% | 18,751 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2417.07 | 2420.63 | -1.33% | 1.46% | 41,084 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2438.14 | 2463.54 | 2437.50 | 2452.75 | 0.60% | 1.06% | 60,640 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2414.15 | 2435.61 | -0.70% | 1.58% | 66,147 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2441.37 | 2463.54 | 2435.25 | 2452.75 | 0.46% | 1.15% | 100,552 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2395.48 | 2397.79 | -2.29% | 2.34% | 102,506 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2419.17 | 2459.53 | 2382.53 | 2438.14 | 0.78% | 3.13% | 157,445 ETH |
| During | 2438.14 | 2463.54 | 2414.15 | 2435.61 | -0.10% | 2.00% | 126,787 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2419.17 | 2463.54 | 2382.53 | 2452.75 | 1.37% | 3.29% | 218,086 ETH |
| During | 2452.76 | 2452.98 | 2388.29 | 2420.36 | -1.34% | 2.64% | 164,116 ETH |
