The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 October 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.2% for September 2026, against 0.2% in August 2026. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.24x, against 2.06x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.15x, against a typical 2.54x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $80,124.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.17% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.36% of its price, against 0.26% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 28 October rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.24x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Subdued move despite cluster of releases
Bitcoin posted a quiet reaction to the 29 October Personal Income release. Volatility reached 1.24 times normal in the quarter hour after the prints, against a 2.09 times median for this event since 2021. Volume rose only 1.15 times, well below the 2.55 times typical mark. The price held at $80,124 for fifteen minutes, finished 0.17 percent higher after an hour, and recorded a high-to-low range of 0.36 percent.
The outcome arrived alongside five other releases, including the GDP report, initial claims, and both headline and core PCE. Personal income printed 0.2 percent month-over-month for September, unchanged from August. Even with this simultaneous flow of data, the market registered no material shift in activity.
Timing may explain part of the restraint. This release fell the day after the Federal Reserve's October policy decision. Personal Income prints that land in the two weeks before a decision have shown a median volatility ratio of 2.13 times since 2021, versus 1.81 times at other times. The 1.24 times reading here fell short of both benchmarks.
Traders following the next Personal Income release can observe that proximity to Federal Reserve decisions has coincided with stronger reactions in the historical record, while releases outside that window have tended to produce milder effects.
How it compares
Across 70 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.06x. This one was 0.60 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.06x. Thick line: this release, 1.24x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 80268.20 | 80104.47 | 80154.01 | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 39 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 80268.20 | 80026.56 | 80074.01 | -0.06% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 97 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 80268.20 | 80014.18 | 80159.96 | 0.04% | 0.32% | 0.10% | 144 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 80268.20 | 80014.18 | 80128.01 | 0.01% | 0.32% | 0.14% | 175 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 80268.20 | 80014.18 | 80058.01 | -0.08% | 0.32% | 0.15% | 247 BTC |
| 1 hour | 80300.00 | 80014.18 | 80258.01 | 0.17% | 0.36% | 0.26% | 536 BTC |
| 2 hours | 80510.01 | 79916.00 | 80427.21 | 0.38% | 0.74% | 0.39% | 1,426 BTC |
| 4 hours | 81971.00 | 79916.00 | 81423.98 | 1.60% | 2.51% | 0.63% | 4,613 BTC |
| 6 hours | 81971.00 | 79916.00 | 80784.00 | 0.82% | 2.51% | 0.68% | 5,903 BTC |
| 8 hours | 81971.00 | 79866.00 | 81423.98 | 1.68% | 2.57% | 1.86% | 6,220 BTC |
| 12 hours | 81971.00 | 76855.52 | 77020.22 | -4.03% | 6.24% | 1.86% | 20,196 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.24x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.46x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.00x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 0.88x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.51x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.28x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.67x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.09x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.31x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.09x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.89x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.16x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.99x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.10x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.99x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.00x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.14x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.27x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.02x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.25x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.76x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 1.01x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.29x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.14x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.24x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.