Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.29x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.47x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,570.52 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.54% higher, and an hour later 0.22% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.36% of its price, against 1.19% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 27 January 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for December 2022, against 0.3% in November 2022. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 1 February rate decision. Its own ratio of 4.29x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum showed an exceptional reaction to the Personal Income release, posting a volatility ratio of 4.29 times normal levels against the 1.80 times median recorded for the event since 2021. Volume expanded 4.47 times compared with the typical 2.15 times. The price opened the interval at $1,570.52, climbed 0.54 percent in the first fifteen minutes, then finished the hour 0.22 percent lower, while the high-to-low range reached 1.36 percent against 1.19 percent beforehand.
The figures arrived together with the Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE prints, all released at 8:30 AM EST by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The print itself showed Personal Income at 0.4 percent for December versus 0.3 percent in November. It landed five days before the Federal Reserve's 1 February decision.
Releases of this type in the two weeks before a policy meeting have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86 times for Ethereum, close to the 1.77 times median at other times. This instance exceeded that benchmark. Across the full set of 69 releases since 2021 the median remains 1.80 times.
A trader reviewing the next Personal Income release can observe that proximity to a Federal Reserve meeting has not produced a consistent difference in Ethereum's response magnitude, although individual outcomes can still depart from the established record.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,583.09Close
1,596.8924h Change
13.80 (0.86%)24h High
1,621.0024h Low
1,552.5424h Volume
499,492 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
27th January, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1571.89 | 1571.89 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.09% | 0.69% | 7,187 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1575.09 | 1565.70 | 1573.36 | 0.18% | 0.60% | 4,471 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1571.85 | 1573.49 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.08% | 0.79% | 8,824 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1583.59 | 1565.70 | 1579.37 | 0.56% | 1.13% | 10,689 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1574.89 | 1575.50 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.28% | 0.92% | 11,268 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1584.73 | 1565.70 | 1582.52 | 0.76% | 1.20% | 13,708 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1576.17 | 1576.18 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.36% | 0.96% | 12,453 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1584.73 | 1565.70 | 1578.94 | 0.53% | 1.20% | 15,009 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1575.17 | 1577.78 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.30% | 1.06% | 16,619 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1584.73 | 1565.70 | 1572.08 | 0.10% | 1.20% | 21,719 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1576.74 | 1579.70 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.40% | 1.18% | 22,581 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1584.73 | 1563.44 | 1567.09 | -0.22% | 1.34% | 30,548 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1577.39 | 1580.85 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.44% | 1.26% | 30,260 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1590.13 | 1563.44 | 1584.58 | 0.89% | 1.68% | 61,057 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1576.27 | 1581.60 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.37% | 1.30% | 54,808 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1597.48 | 1563.44 | 1591.86 | 1.34% | 2.13% | 116,265 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1581.05 | 1586.09 | 1561.00 | 1570.52 | -0.67% | 1.58% | 78,241 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1611.79 | 1563.44 | 1604.27 | 2.10% | 3.00% | 157,295 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1583.09 | 1589.90 | 1552.54 | 1576.26 | -0.43% | 2.35% | 177,764 ETH |
| During | 1576.27 | 1597.48 | 1561.00 | 1591.86 | 0.98% | 2.28% | 171,073 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1583.09 | 1589.90 | 1552.54 | 1570.52 | -0.80% | 2.35% | 232,572 ETH |
| During | 1570.52 | 1621.00 | 1563.44 | 1596.89 | 1.65% | 3.55% | 266,919 ETH |
