ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 24th February 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 24 February 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.6% for January 2023, against 0.4% in December 2022. Personal income is rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,642.25 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.34% lower, and an hour later 0.47% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.78% of its price, against 0.6% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.05x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.58x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.05x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum's reaction to the January Personal Income release registered as ordinary by Clometrix standards. The volatility ratio reached 2.05x against the event's typical 1.80x since 2021, while volume expanded to 5.58x compared with the usual 2.15x. Price fell 0.34 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.47 percent within the hour, with a high-to-low range of 0.78 percent in the post-release period versus 0.6 percent beforehand.

The release arrived alongside Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE prints, yet it fell outside the two-week window ahead of the March Federal Reserve decision. Releases in that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x, while those farther out sit at 1.77x. This instance's 2.05x reading therefore exceeded what the timing alone would have indicated. Across the full set of 69 Personal Income releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio stands at 1.80x.

Traders reviewing the record may note that Personal Income releases have historically generated comparable volatility whether or not they precede a policy meeting. The elevated volume ratio observed here, relative to the typical multiple, suggests liquidity responses can still exceed the volatility outcome even when the overall price move remains within normal bounds for the event.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

1,657.43

1,605.69

24h Change

-51.74 (-3.22%)

24h High

1,658.93

24h Low

1,575.64

24h Volume

499,691 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

24th February, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	1644.29	1644.78	1641.88	1642.25	-0.12%	0.18%	452 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1635.00	1636.58	-0.35%	0.45%	4,891 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	1642.17	1648.09	1641.88	1642.25	0.00%	0.38%	2,244 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1634.66	1636.49	-0.35%	0.47%	10,215 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	1644.91	1648.09	1641.88	1642.25	-0.16%	0.38%	3,274 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1632.00	1635.01	-0.44%	0.63%	17,109 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	1642.29	1648.09	1641.88	1642.25	0.00%	0.38%	4,040 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1632.00	1636.64	-0.34%	0.63%	19,200 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	1645.11	1648.09	1639.08	1642.25	-0.17%	0.55%	9,590 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1632.00	1635.24	-0.43%	0.63%	25,149 ETH

1 Hour
Before	1647.31	1648.98	1639.08	1642.25	-0.31%	0.60%	15,099 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1629.57	1634.50	-0.47%	0.78%	36,446 ETH

2 Hours
Before	1646.61	1654.76	1639.08	1642.25	-0.27%	0.95%	29,950 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1616.88	1620.66	-1.33%	1.55%	71,426 ETH

4 Hours
Before	1652.08	1654.76	1639.08	1642.25	-0.60%	0.95%	51,963 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1575.64	1593.06	-3.09%	4.06%	207,224 ETH

6 Hours
Before	1646.18	1657.65	1639.08	1642.25	-0.24%	1.12%	87,664 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1575.64	1594.65	-2.98%	4.06%	238,376 ETH

8 Hours
Before	1657.43	1658.93	1641.08	1652.09	-0.32%	1.08%	101,924 ETH
During	1652.08	1654.76	1575.64	1593.06	-3.70%	4.78%	259,188 ETH

12 Hours
Before	1657.43	1658.93	1639.08	1642.25	-0.92%	1.20%	153,887 ETH
During	1642.25	1642.39	1575.64	1605.69	-2.28%	4.06%	345,803 ETH