ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 31st January 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 January 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for December 2024, against 0.3% in November 2024. Personal income is rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.21x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.98x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $3,356.78 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.2% lower, and an hour later 0.18% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.9% of its price, against 0.76% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 29 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.21x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Subdued Volatility Reading

Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release and the accompanying PCE figures that arrived together on 31 January 2025. Volatility reached 1.21x its baseline level for the quarter-hour window, compared with the 1.80x median recorded for Personal Income events since 2021. Volume rose 1.98x against the event-typical 2.15x. Both ratios remained below the 1.5x threshold that marks a measurable response.

The price stood at $3,356.78 at the 8:30 AM release. It declined 0.2 percent in the first fifteen minutes and stood 0.18 percent higher after one hour. The high-to-low range in that hour reached 0.9 percent of spot, only modestly wider than the 0.76 percent range observed in the prior hour. Personal Income printed 0.4 percent for December against 0.3 percent in November.

The release fell two days after the Federal Reserve's January rate decision and outside the two-week window ahead of the March meeting. Across the longer record, Personal Income prints inside the pre-decision fortnight have produced median volatility of 1.86x for Ethereum, nearly identical to the 1.77x median at other times. This instance produced a 1.21x ratio, lower still than the non-Fed-window benchmark.

Traders observing future Personal Income releases may therefore watch whether proximity to a policy decision alters the magnitude of any surprise, while recognising that the present data set shows only coincidence rather than causation.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

3,263.90

3,323.51

24h Change

59.61 (1.79%)

24h High

3,437.31

24h Low

3,213.80

24h Volume

654,793 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

31st January, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	3357.25	3358.56	3356.77	3356.77	-0.01%	0.05%	213 ETH
During	3356.78	3358.82	3356.05	3358.58	0.05%	0.08%	275 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	3357.03	3370.13	3355.00	3356.77	-0.01%	0.45%	5,814 ETH
During	3356.78	3359.07	3343.26	3349.51	-0.22%	0.47%	4,627 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	3354.57	3370.13	3351.01	3356.77	0.07%	0.57%	7,836 ETH
During	3356.78	3360.23	3341.49	3359.30	0.08%	0.56%	7,897 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	3360.00	3370.13	3351.01	3356.77	-0.10%	0.57%	11,448 ETH
During	3356.78	3360.23	3341.49	3349.99	-0.20%	0.56%	9,894 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	3350.70	3370.13	3350.00	3356.77	0.18%	0.60%	17,246 ETH
During	3356.78	3360.23	3341.49	3354.68	-0.06%	0.56%	13,825 ETH

1 Hour
Before	3350.66	3370.13	3344.61	3356.77	0.18%	0.76%	33,374 ETH
During	3356.78	3371.71	3341.49	3362.99	0.18%	0.90%	30,853 ETH

2 Hours
Before	3329.35	3370.13	3320.01	3356.77	0.82%	1.49%	75,062 ETH
During	3356.78	3395.00	3334.71	3392.57	1.05%	1.78%	86,886 ETH

4 Hours
Before	3250.39	3370.13	3250.00	3356.77	3.17%	3.56%	130,895 ETH
During	3356.78	3437.31	3334.71	3396.98	1.18%	2.98%	191,714 ETH

6 Hours
Before	3265.01	3370.13	3234.05	3356.77	2.73%	4.04%	160,799 ETH
During	3356.78	3437.31	3294.97	3326.08	-0.92%	4.14%	296,741 ETH

8 Hours
Before	3263.90	3279.50	3213.80	3250.38	-0.42%	2.00%	100,401 ETH
During	3250.39	3437.31	3250.00	3396.98	4.32%	5.45%	322,609 ETH

12 Hours
Before	3263.90	3370.13	3213.80	3356.77	2.77%	4.64%	231,296 ETH
During	3356.78	3437.31	3278.50	3323.51	-1.00%	4.62%	423,497 ETH