Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.29x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.03x, against a typical 2.15x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,217.24 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.51% higher, and an hour later 3.51% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.03% of its price, against 1.53% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 20 December 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for November 2024, against 0.7% in October 2024. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 18 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.29x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum recorded a strong reaction to the Personal Income release, with volatility reaching 3.29x its typical level for the quarter hour of the print and volume hitting 4.03x, well above the 1.80x and 2.15x medians seen across Personal Income events since 2021. The move stood out against the event's long-term record of a 1.80x median volatility ratio across 69 releases.
Price action and concurrent data
Ethereum stood at $3,217.24 at the 8:30 AM EST release and rose 2.51 percent within fifteen minutes and 3.51 percent within the hour, while the high-to-low range expanded to 4.03 percent of price compared with 1.53 percent in the prior hour. The 0.3 percent November print arrived alongside the 0.1 percent PCE and 0.1 percent core PCE figures, so the measured response reflects the combined release.
The release landed two days after the Federal Reserve's December policy decision and thirty-nine days before the January meeting, placing it outside the usual two-week pre-decision window where median volatility has been 1.86x. Even so, the 3.29x outcome exceeded the 1.77x median observed for releases at other times.
Traders may note that Personal Income prints coinciding with inflation components can produce outsized moves for Ethereum regardless of proximity to rate decisions, though the record shows only coincidence rather than a repeatable pattern to size positions around.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,411.97Close
3,472.6324h Change
60.66 (1.75%)24h High
3,497.8424h Low
3,101.9024h Volume
1.3M ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
20th December, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3221.93 | 3222.56 | 3210.35 | 3217.24 | -0.15% | 0.38% | 975 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3270.00 | 3216.40 | 3264.01 | 1.43% | 1.64% | 9,482 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3215.99 | 3233.24 | 3210.35 | 3217.24 | 0.04% | 0.71% | 3,054 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3289.32 | 3216.40 | 3287.21 | 2.13% | 2.22% | 21,913 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3220.29 | 3233.24 | 3206.69 | 3217.24 | -0.09% | 0.82% | 7,018 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3295.00 | 3216.40 | 3284.32 | 2.04% | 2.39% | 31,151 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3235.95 | 3238.66 | 3206.69 | 3217.24 | -0.58% | 0.99% | 10,992 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3303.54 | 3216.40 | 3298.02 | 2.45% | 2.64% | 40,932 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3236.00 | 3255.93 | 3206.69 | 3217.24 | -0.58% | 1.51% | 25,515 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3313.67 | 3216.40 | 3296.63 | 2.41% | 2.94% | 62,050 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3219.00 | 3255.93 | 3206.69 | 3217.24 | -0.05% | 1.51% | 65,025 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3346.18 | 3216.40 | 3330.02 | 3.39% | 3.88% | 95,418 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3164.27 | 3255.93 | 3101.90 | 3217.24 | 1.65% | 4.73% | 207,792 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3392.00 | 3216.40 | 3388.68 | 5.06% | 5.18% | 173,364 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3290.00 | 3315.39 | 3101.90 | 3217.24 | -2.26% | 6.44% | 427,035 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3431.08 | 3216.40 | 3428.48 | 6.16% | 6.26% | 297,270 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3409.25 | 3418.54 | 3101.90 | 3217.24 | -5.97% | 9.26% | 602,307 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3476.59 | 3216.40 | 3475.09 | 7.42% | 7.48% | 354,286 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3411.97 | 3465.60 | 3261.85 | 3289.99 | -3.71% | 5.88% | 390,416 ETH |
| During | 3290.00 | 3431.08 | 3101.90 | 3428.48 | 4.04% | 9.59% | 724,305 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3411.97 | 3465.60 | 3101.90 | 3217.24 | -6.05% | 10.49% | 817,451 ETH |
| During | 3217.24 | 3497.84 | 3216.40 | 3472.63 | 7.35% | 8.05% | 482,103 ETH |
