The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 April 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.6% for March 2026, against -0.1% in February 2026. Personal income is rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $76,344.23 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.12% lower, and an hour later 0.21% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.46% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.78x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.72x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 29 April rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.78x compares with 1.81x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the Personal Income release. Its volatility ratio of 1.78x fell just below the 2.09x median recorded across 69 releases since 2021. Price moved 0.12 percent lower in the first fifteen minutes and 0.21 percent lower after one hour from the $76,344.23 dollar opening level, while the high to low range narrowed to 0.46 percent of price in the hour after the print.
The release arrived the day after the Federal Reserve's April policy decision and 47 days before the next scheduled meeting. Releases outside the two week pre decision window have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.81x since 2021, against 2.13x for those inside the window. The 1.78x reading here aligned closely with the post decision benchmark.
Volume rose to 6.72x against the event typical 2.55x, yet this did not translate into an outsized price swing. The print therefore produced the contained move that Clometrix records for Personal Income releases timed away from imminent Federal Reserve decisions.
Traders watching the next release may note that the historical pattern ties larger Bitcoin volatility ratios more closely to proximity with policy meetings than to the magnitude of the income figure itself.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.88 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.78x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 76500.00 | 76344.22 | 76414.96 | 0.09% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 63 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 76511.22 | 76337.05 | 76359.91 | 0.02% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 349 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 76511.22 | 76337.05 | 76343.23 | 0.00% | 0.23% | 0.36% | 423 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 76511.22 | 76255.01 | 76255.01 | -0.12% | 0.33% | 0.47% | 511 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 76511.22 | 76254.00 | 76308.48 | -0.05% | 0.34% | 0.60% | 627 BTC |
| 1 hour | 76511.22 | 76159.45 | 76186.63 | -0.21% | 0.46% | 0.82% | 850 BTC |
| 2 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76354.20 | 0.01% | 0.75% | 0.82% | 1,988 BTC |
| 4 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76355.18 | 0.01% | 0.75% | 0.82% | 2,705 BTC |
| 6 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76281.25 | -0.08% | 0.75% | 1.08% | 3,154 BTC |
| 8 hours | 76669.14 | 75876.29 | 76355.18 | 0.37% | 1.03% | 1.50% | 5,109 BTC |
| 12 hours | 76669.14 | 76093.81 | 76531.81 | 0.25% | 0.75% | 1.54% | 4,598 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.78x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 0.82x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.81x | - |
| BNB | 2.00x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 0.86x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.44x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.00x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.00x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.03x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.37x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.15x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.00x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.23x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.00x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.99x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | Not measured | 1.50x | - |
| Aave | 0.80x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.25x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | Not measured | 1.43x | - |
| Aptos | 0.00x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.99x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.78x a lot?
For a Personal Income release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.