Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.87x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.71x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,794.73 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.73% higher, and an hour later 1.35% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.8% of its price, against 0.37% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 March 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.6% for February 2023, against 0.6% in January 2023. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.87x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Volatility reached 4.87 times the normal quarter-hour range, more than double the 1.80x median observed across 69 releases since 2021. Volume expanded 4.71 times its baseline. The price advanced from $1,794.73 to a 1.35 percent gain within the hour, while the high-low range widened to 1.8 percent from 0.37 percent beforehand.
Timing and accompanying data
The move occurred 32 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the window in which Personal Income releases have historically produced a 1.86x median volatility ratio. The 4.87x outcome therefore exceeded what the calendar position alone would have suggested. The release arrived simultaneously with PCE at 0.3 percent and core PCE at 0.4 percent, so the measured response reflects the combined impact of the income and spending figures. Personal Income itself printed 0.6 percent month-over-month, unchanged from the prior month. For traders the episode illustrates that the full set of BEA data can generate larger price and volume shifts than the Personal Income component has produced in isolation. Future releases of this event that coincide with the full PCE suite may warrant closer attention to short-term volatility even when they fall well clear of policy meetings.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,802.80Close
1,824.0124h Change
21.21 (1.16%)24h High
1,847.2824h Low
1,777.9124h Volume
549,882 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
31st March, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1794.53 | 1795.56 | 1794.49 | 1794.73 | 0.01% | 0.06% | 185 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1808.71 | 1790.56 | 1806.69 | 0.66% | 1.00% | 4,787 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1793.30 | 1795.56 | 1793.13 | 1794.73 | 0.08% | 0.14% | 443 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1809.62 | 1790.56 | 1806.67 | 0.66% | 1.05% | 10,302 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1792.67 | 1795.56 | 1792.66 | 1794.73 | 0.11% | 0.16% | 1,321 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1809.62 | 1790.56 | 1806.53 | 0.65% | 1.05% | 13,610 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1792.50 | 1795.56 | 1791.40 | 1794.73 | 0.12% | 0.23% | 2,417 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1812.67 | 1790.56 | 1807.80 | 0.72% | 1.22% | 18,069 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1792.90 | 1795.56 | 1791.40 | 1794.73 | 0.10% | 0.23% | 4,830 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1812.67 | 1790.56 | 1807.08 | 0.68% | 1.22% | 23,845 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1790.94 | 1795.56 | 1789.00 | 1794.73 | 0.21% | 0.37% | 11,254 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1822.79 | 1790.56 | 1818.99 | 1.33% | 1.77% | 46,065 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1796.39 | 1799.72 | 1788.85 | 1794.73 | -0.09% | 0.60% | 25,249 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1847.28 | 1790.56 | 1834.27 | 2.16% | 3.07% | 127,520 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1791.56 | 1799.72 | 1786.17 | 1794.73 | 0.18% | 0.75% | 51,167 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1847.28 | 1790.56 | 1824.85 | 1.65% | 3.07% | 205,811 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1797.81 | 1800.00 | 1777.91 | 1794.73 | -0.17% | 1.23% | 103,168 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1847.28 | 1790.56 | 1824.90 | 1.65% | 3.07% | 240,269 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1802.80 | 1817.99 | 1777.91 | 1791.57 | -0.63% | 2.20% | 147,361 ETH |
| During | 1791.56 | 1847.28 | 1786.17 | 1824.85 | 1.82% | 3.31% | 256,978 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1802.80 | 1817.99 | 1777.91 | 1794.73 | -0.45% | 2.20% | 198,528 ETH |
| During | 1794.73 | 1847.28 | 1790.56 | 1824.01 | 1.61% | 3.07% | 351,354 ETH |
