Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.68x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.17x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,946.71 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.94% lower, and an hour later 0.34% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.23% of its price, against 0.67% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 20 February 2026 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for December 2025, against 0.1% in October 2025. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.68x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum posted an exceptional reaction to the Personal Income release, posting a volatility ratio of 3.68x against the event median of 1.80x since 2021. Volume expanded 4.17x versus the usual 2.15x. The outcome exceeded the long-run median of 1.80x recorded across 69 releases and arrived outside the two-week window before the March Federal Reserve decision.
The price stood at $1,946.71 at the 8:30 AM print. It fell 0.94 percent in the first fifteen minutes and remained 0.34 percent lower after sixty minutes. The high-to-low range reached 1.23 percent of spot in the hour after the release, compared with 0.67 percent in the prior hour.
Personal income rose 0.3 percent for December 2025, faster than the 0.1 percent October pace. Without the usual proximity to a policy meeting, the combined data produced more than twice the typical volatility for this event type.
Traders watching the next Personal Income print may therefore watch the size of any deviation from prior trends rather than calendar distance from Federal Reserve meetings, since releases away from policy dates have shown comparable median impact in the record.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,955.28Close
1,964.1324h Change
8.85 (0.45%)24h High
1,981.1824h Low
1,922.9724h Volume
380,743 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
20th February, 2026, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1944.01 | 1946.71 | 1944.01 | 1946.71 | 0.14% | 0.14% | 300 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1947.00 | 1944.12 | 1944.12 | -0.13% | 0.15% | 327 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1940.16 | 1946.71 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | 0.34% | 0.42% | 1,219 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1947.00 | 1934.81 | 1935.70 | -0.57% | 0.63% | 2,566 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1948.35 | 1948.35 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | -0.08% | 0.50% | 3,805 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1947.00 | 1924.01 | 1926.09 | -1.07% | 1.18% | 8,576 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1945.34 | 1948.97 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | 0.07% | 0.54% | 4,671 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1947.00 | 1922.97 | 1928.41 | -0.95% | 1.23% | 11,630 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1949.82 | 1949.83 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | -0.16% | 0.58% | 9,704 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1947.00 | 1922.97 | 1934.11 | -0.65% | 1.23% | 16,266 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1945.51 | 1951.65 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | 0.06% | 0.67% | 17,050 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1947.00 | 1922.97 | 1940.04 | -0.34% | 1.23% | 22,483 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1953.87 | 1954.81 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | -0.37% | 0.83% | 34,382 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1980.49 | 1922.97 | 1956.56 | 0.50% | 2.90% | 83,846 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1967.61 | 1973.86 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | -1.07% | 1.79% | 62,615 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1980.49 | 1922.97 | 1944.38 | -0.12% | 2.90% | 141,254 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1962.25 | 1973.86 | 1938.54 | 1946.71 | -0.80% | 1.79% | 90,889 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1981.18 | 1922.97 | 1964.37 | 0.90% | 2.94% | 189,182 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1955.28 | 1972.27 | 1931.01 | 1967.61 | 0.63% | 2.09% | 92,563 ETH |
| During | 1967.61 | 1980.49 | 1922.97 | 1944.38 | -1.19% | 2.90% | 203,869 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1955.28 | 1973.86 | 1931.01 | 1946.71 | -0.44% | 2.17% | 155,178 ETH |
| During | 1946.71 | 1981.18 | 1922.97 | 1964.13 | 0.89% | 2.94% | 225,565 ETH |
