Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.93x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 17.68x, against a typical 2.52x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $67,202.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.86% lower, and an hour later 0.34% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.4% of its price, against 0.91% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 20 February 2026 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for December 2025, against 0.1% in October 2025. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.93x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.03x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an exceptional reaction to the Personal Income release, posting a volatility ratio of 4.93x against the event median of 2.09x since 2021. Volume expanded 17.68x in the quarter hour of the print, well above the typical 2.55x. Price stood at $67,202.01 at 8:30 AM EST, then fell 0.86 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.34 percent after one hour, while the hourly high-low range widened to 1.4 percent from 0.91 percent beforehand.
The reading of 0.3 percent for December arrived alongside the GDP report, PCE and Core PCE, so the measured move reflects the combined impact. This release fell 25 days before the March Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced larger Bitcoin moves.
Across the full set of 69 Personal Income prints since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio stands at 2.09x. Traders monitoring the next Personal Income release may note that outsized volatility can occur even when the print is distant from a Federal Reserve decision, though the record supplies no basis for expecting any particular magnitude on future occasions.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 2.43 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 4.93x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 67220.88 | 67148.61 | 67157.71 | -0.07% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 16 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 67220.88 | 66833.45 | 66881.02 | -0.48% | 0.58% | 0.36% | 177 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66511.58 | -1.04% | 1.40% | 0.37% | 1,904 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66624.09 | -0.87% | 1.40% | 0.40% | 2,631 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66801.62 | -0.60% | 1.40% | 0.83% | 6,487 BTC |
| 1 hour | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66976.34 | -0.34% | 1.40% | 0.90% | 9,465 BTC |
| 2 hours | 68083.98 | 66280.20 | 67453.71 | 0.37% | 2.65% | 1.34% | 13,989 BTC |
| 4 hours | 68083.98 | 66280.20 | 67031.71 | -0.25% | 2.65% | 1.95% | 17,180 BTC |
| 6 hours | 68083.98 | 66280.20 | 67625.23 | 0.63% | 2.65% | 1.95% | 24,065 BTC |
| 8 hours | 68318.39 | 66280.20 | 67031.71 | -1.74% | 2.98% | 1.63% | 20,690 BTC |
| 12 hours | 68233.99 | 66280.20 | 67856.59 | 0.96% | 2.86% | 1.95% | 27,562 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 4.93x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 3.68x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 2.06x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 3.92x | 1.75x | Exceptional |
| Solana | 3.44x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 4.69x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 2.33x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Cardano | 3.82x | 1.90x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 3.31x | 1.62x | Exceptional |
| Sui | 3.55x | 1.53x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.42x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 3.44x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.57x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.49x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Gram | 1.02x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 3.70x | 1.75x | Exceptional |
| Uniswap | 3.64x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 1.04x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 8.44x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| Bittensor | 3.19x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.08x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 4.61x | 1.73x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 3.06x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.04x | 1.60x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 3.06x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 4.93x a lot?
For a Personal Income release it is exceptional: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.