Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 October 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at -0.6% for September 2021, against 0.3% in August 2021. Personal income is falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.95x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.32x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $4,337.61 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.09% lower, and an hour later 0.37% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.92% of its price, against 1.36% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 3 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.95x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Personal Income for September printed -0.6 percent month-over-month, down from the prior 0.3 percent. The release arrived alongside the Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE prints. Ethereum registered a quiet reaction, with volatility at 0.95x against the 1.80x typical for this event since 2021. Volume reached only 1.32x versus the usual 2.15x.
Ethereum traded at $4,337.61 at the 8:30 release. It declined 0.09 percent within fifteen minutes and 0.37 percent after one hour. Its high-to-low range in the following hour narrowed to 0.92 percent of price from 1.36 percent beforehand. Clometrix classifies the move as quiet.
The print fell five days before the Federal Reserve's November 3 decision. Personal Income releases in that window have produced a median 1.86x volatility ratio across eighteen prior cases, against 1.77x at other times. This instance therefore fell short of the response its timing would normally imply.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
4,277.01Close
4,380.1024h Change
103.09 (2.35%)24h High
4,460.4724h Low
4,265.9724h Volume
554,422 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
29th October, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 4326.85 | 4337.89 | 4323.85 | 4337.61 | 0.25% | 0.32% | 1,066 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4340.00 | 4316.93 | 4329.36 | -0.19% | 0.53% | 1,507 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4318.78 | 4337.89 | 4318.77 | 4337.61 | 0.43% | 0.44% | 1,701 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4340.00 | 4316.93 | 4328.33 | -0.21% | 0.53% | 3,432 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4320.11 | 4337.89 | 4313.44 | 4337.61 | 0.40% | 0.56% | 3,159 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4340.00 | 4316.93 | 4327.73 | -0.23% | 0.53% | 4,721 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4304.87 | 4337.89 | 4296.64 | 4337.61 | 0.75% | 0.95% | 4,918 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4340.00 | 4316.93 | 4333.67 | -0.09% | 0.53% | 5,862 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4320.53 | 4337.89 | 4296.64 | 4337.61 | 0.39% | 0.95% | 7,857 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4340.00 | 4311.02 | 4315.00 | -0.52% | 0.67% | 9,668 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 4329.56 | 4337.89 | 4278.70 | 4337.61 | 0.19% | 1.36% | 20,867 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4340.00 | 4300.00 | 4321.36 | -0.38% | 0.92% | 17,639 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4316.60 | 4337.89 | 4278.70 | 4337.61 | 0.48% | 1.36% | 33,016 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4375.00 | 4300.00 | 4330.11 | -0.17% | 1.71% | 49,263 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4306.33 | 4366.34 | 4278.70 | 4337.61 | 0.72% | 2.01% | 79,625 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4460.47 | 4300.00 | 4436.31 | 2.22% | 3.60% | 147,374 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4329.75 | 4366.34 | 4278.70 | 4337.61 | 0.18% | 2.01% | 117,581 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4460.47 | 4300.00 | 4389.68 | 1.19% | 3.60% | 178,317 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4277.01 | 4405.50 | 4265.97 | 4306.33 | 0.68% | 3.17% | 214,732 ETH |
| During | 4306.33 | 4460.47 | 4278.70 | 4436.31 | 2.93% | 4.08% | 226,999 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4277.01 | 4405.50 | 4265.97 | 4337.61 | 1.40% | 3.17% | 294,356 ETH |
| During | 4337.61 | 4460.47 | 4300.00 | 4380.10 | 0.97% | 3.60% | 260,065 ETH |
