ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 25th February 2022

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 25 February 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.0% for January 2022, against 0.3% in December 2021. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.19x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.90x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $2,713.55 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.31% higher, and an hour later 0.69% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.72% of its price, against 2.08% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.19x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the January Personal Income and Outlays release. Volatility reached 1.19 times normal levels in the quarter hour after the 8:30 AM print, below the 1.80 times median recorded for this event since 2021. Volume rose 1.90 times against a typical 2.15 times. Both ratios remained under the 1.5 times threshold that signals a measurable response, so the market registered little movement from the data.

The release showed personal income unchanged at 0.0 percent for January after a 0.3 percent increase in December. It arrived together with Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE and the remaining components of the monthly outlays report. Ethereum stood at $2,713.55 at the moment of publication, then moved 0.31 percent higher within fifteen minutes and 0.69 percent lower within the hour. Its high-to-low range in the first hour after the print measured 1.72 percent of price, narrower than the 2.08 percent range seen in the prior hour.

The outcome fits the pattern observed for Personal Income releases that fall outside the two-week window before Federal Reserve decisions. Those events have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.77 times for Ethereum. The current release fell short of that benchmark, indicating that the modest print and its timing together kept price action contained. A trader reviewing the next instance of the report can take from the record that proximity to policy meetings has not historically changed the scale of the reaction for this coin.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

2,631.45

2,819.65

24h Change

188.20 (6.67%)

24h High

2,878.00

24h Low

2,571.72

24h Volume

708,407 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

25th February, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	2712.39	2714.38	2708.94	2713.56	0.04%	0.20%	930 ETH
During	2713.55	2713.94	2709.21	2710.85	-0.10%	0.17%	987 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	2718.99	2720.19	2708.34	2713.56	-0.20%	0.44%	3,198 ETH
During	2713.55	2729.00	2709.21	2726.87	0.49%	0.73%	5,032 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	2711.37	2722.95	2708.34	2713.56	0.08%	0.54%	5,723 ETH
During	2713.55	2734.06	2709.21	2728.19	0.54%	0.91%	8,538 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	2712.09	2722.95	2706.25	2713.56	0.05%	0.61%	8,100 ETH
During	2713.55	2734.06	2709.21	2722.00	0.31%	0.91%	10,552 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	2708.22	2722.95	2701.75	2713.56	0.20%	0.78%	20,166 ETH
During	2713.55	2734.06	2700.59	2711.62	-0.07%	1.22%	16,898 ETH

1 Hour
Before	2669.22	2722.95	2666.46	2713.56	1.63%	2.07%	46,327 ETH
During	2713.55	2734.06	2687.51	2694.77	-0.70%	1.70%	30,862 ETH

2 Hours
Before	2621.47	2722.95	2616.08	2713.56	3.39%	3.92%	90,192 ETH
During	2713.55	2734.06	2655.39	2709.15	-0.16%	2.88%	85,220 ETH

4 Hours
Before	2574.68	2722.95	2572.00	2713.56	5.12%	5.54%	128,512 ETH
During	2713.55	2745.94	2655.39	2715.43	0.07%	3.30%	143,872 ETH

6 Hours
Before	2622.82	2722.95	2571.72	2713.56	3.34%	5.55%	180,345 ETH
During	2713.55	2745.94	2655.39	2696.12	-0.65%	3.30%	180,118 ETH

8 Hours
Before	2631.45	2649.96	2571.72	2574.67	-2.21%	2.95%	182,207 ETH
During	2574.68	2745.94	2572.00	2715.43	5.18%	6.33%	272,384 ETH

12 Hours
Before	2631.45	2722.95	2571.72	2713.56	3.03%	5.55%	310,719 ETH
During	2713.55	2878.00	2655.39	2819.65	3.76%	7.73%	397,688 ETH