Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 25 June 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at -1.9% for May 2021, against -12.9% in April 2021. Personal income is still falling, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.25x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.37x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,872.98 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.77% lower, and an hour later 1.38% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.16% of its price, against 2.07% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.25x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release published at 8:30 AM EDT on 25 June 2021. Volatility reached 1.25x against the 1.80x median recorded for this event since 2021, while volume rose only 1.37x compared with the usual 2.15x. Both ratios remained below the 1.5x level that marks any measurable response, so the market effectively ignored the print and the PCE and Core PCE figures that arrived alongside it.
Price movement stayed inside normal intraday bounds. Ethereum opened the release window at $1,872.98, then traded 0.77 percent lower after fifteen minutes and 1.38 percent lower after one hour. Its high-low range in the post-release hour measured 2.16 percent of price, barely wider than the 2.07 percent range observed in the prior hour.
The release fell outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision, landing 32 days ahead of the July meeting. Personal Income prints at similar distances have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.77x, yet this instance reached only 1.25x. The record shows that proximity to policy dates has not altered the typical magnitude of Ethereum's response to this event, leaving traders with no additional timing signal for the next release.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,007.52Close
1,821.5124h Change
-186.01 (-10.21%)24h High
2,019.9924h Low
1,791.2224h Volume
872,941 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
25th June, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1870.13 | 1874.09 | 1870.13 | 1873.02 | 0.15% | 0.21% | 260 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1872.99 | 1865.61 | 1866.10 | -0.37% | 0.39% | 593 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1878.30 | 1880.00 | 1869.32 | 1873.02 | -0.28% | 0.57% | 3,221 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1872.99 | 1861.30 | 1866.24 | -0.36% | 0.62% | 2,931 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1876.94 | 1880.00 | 1869.32 | 1873.02 | -0.21% | 0.57% | 6,252 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1872.99 | 1850.57 | 1852.34 | -1.11% | 1.20% | 6,338 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1867.63 | 1880.00 | 1856.50 | 1873.02 | 0.29% | 1.25% | 11,809 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1872.99 | 1850.57 | 1858.65 | -0.77% | 1.20% | 9,840 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1852.99 | 1880.00 | 1841.16 | 1873.02 | 1.07% | 2.07% | 29,877 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1872.99 | 1843.33 | 1860.58 | -0.67% | 1.58% | 22,784 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1855.16 | 1880.00 | 1841.16 | 1873.02 | 0.95% | 2.07% | 56,087 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1872.99 | 1832.44 | 1847.05 | -1.40% | 2.16% | 50,486 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1891.66 | 1898.84 | 1841.16 | 1873.02 | -1.00% | 3.04% | 110,511 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1873.75 | 1832.44 | 1861.98 | -0.59% | 2.20% | 85,332 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1930.79 | 1947.37 | 1841.16 | 1873.02 | -3.08% | 5.45% | 172,577 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1873.75 | 1791.22 | 1798.80 | -4.12% | 4.40% | 226,904 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1964.63 | 1975.80 | 1841.16 | 1873.02 | -4.89% | 6.81% | 236,520 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1873.75 | 1791.22 | 1837.97 | -1.90% | 4.40% | 322,152 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2007.52 | 2019.99 | 1913.71 | 1930.39 | -4.00% | 5.26% | 195,789 ETH |
| During | 1930.79 | 1947.37 | 1791.22 | 1798.80 | -7.34% | 8.02% | 399,481 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2007.52 | 2019.99 | 1841.16 | 1873.02 | -7.18% | 8.85% | 368,367 ETH |
| During | 1872.98 | 1873.75 | 1791.22 | 1821.51 | -2.83% | 4.40% | 504,574 ETH |
