ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 22nd December 2023

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 22 December 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for November 2023, against 0.3% in October 2023. Personal income is rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.38x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.05x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $2,300.49 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.25% higher, and an hour later 0.06% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.19% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.38x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the cluster of November data that included the 0.4 percent Personal Income print. Volatility reached only 1.38 times the level seen in an ordinary quarter-hour that day, well below the 1.80 times median recorded for Personal Income releases since 2021. Volume barely moved at 1.05 times normal, against a typical 2.15 times.

Timing and Co-Releases

The release arrived outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, a period that has historically produced median volatility of 1.86 times for Ethereum. It also coincided with Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE and headline PCE prints, yet the combined package still produced a volatility ratio below the 1.5 times threshold that Clometrix treats as a non-reaction.

Price action confirmed the subdued profile. Ethereum stood at $2,300.49 at 8:30 AM EST, rose 0.25 percent in the first fifteen minutes and finished the hour 0.06 percent lower, with an hourly range of 1.19 percent compared with 0.82 percent beforehand. The outcome illustrates that even a batch of macro figures can leave the market largely unmoved when the surprise component remains modest relative to the event's usual impact.

Traders preparing for the next Personal Income release may note that timing relative to the Federal Open Market Committee calendar has not, on its own, produced markedly different volatility in the record since 2021. The episode supplies a reminder that headline strength alone does not guarantee price movement when other contemporaneous data fail to shift expectations.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

2,250.87

2,304.30

24h Change

53.43 (2.32%)

24h High

2,343.15

24h Low

2,232.56

24h Volume

596,955 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

22nd December, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	2300.37	2300.58	2300.36	2300.49	0.01%	0.01%	101 ETH
During	2300.49	2300.50	2296.92	2298.38	-0.09%	0.16%	452 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	2299.40	2300.74	2299.04	2300.49	0.05%	0.07%	1,084 ETH
During	2300.49	2301.00	2295.31	2300.73	0.01%	0.25%	1,696 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	2300.68	2301.00	2297.68	2300.49	-0.01%	0.14%	2,658 ETH
During	2300.49	2306.71	2295.31	2305.83	0.23%	0.49%	3,616 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	2298.76	2301.00	2297.68	2300.49	0.08%	0.14%	3,834 ETH
During	2300.49	2307.34	2295.31	2306.15	0.25%	0.52%	4,793 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	2293.53	2301.00	2290.00	2300.49	0.30%	0.48%	8,949 ETH
During	2300.49	2309.41	2295.31	2308.45	0.34%	0.61%	8,411 ETH

1 Hour
Before	2306.75	2308.90	2290.00	2300.49	-0.27%	0.82%	22,758 ETH
During	2300.49	2322.58	2295.31	2299.12	-0.06%	1.17%	24,386 ETH

2 Hours
Before	2312.19	2320.00	2290.00	2300.49	-0.51%	1.29%	43,306 ETH
During	2300.49	2343.15	2295.31	2326.38	1.11%	2.04%	69,505 ETH

4 Hours
Before	2324.87	2331.00	2290.00	2300.49	-1.06%	1.76%	110,385 ETH
During	2300.49	2343.15	2295.31	2328.52	1.20%	2.04%	106,293 ETH

6 Hours
Before	2277.35	2331.00	2268.00	2300.49	1.01%	2.70%	239,318 ETH
During	2300.49	2343.15	2295.31	2314.69	0.61%	2.04%	137,496 ETH

8 Hours
Before	2250.87	2327.68	2232.56	2324.87	3.18%	4.09%	275,439 ETH
During	2324.87	2343.15	2290.00	2328.52	0.16%	2.27%	216,677 ETH

12 Hours
Before	2250.87	2331.00	2232.56	2300.49	2.16%	4.22%	385,823 ETH
During	2300.49	2343.15	2295.31	2304.30	0.17%	2.04%	211,131 ETH