Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 June 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.5% for May 2023, against 0.4% in April 2023. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.30x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.15x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,898.15 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.25% higher, and an hour later 0.45% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.92% of its price, against 0.67% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.30x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum showed little response to the combined release of Personal Income, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE. Its volatility ratio reached 1.30x against the 1.80x median recorded for Personal Income events since 2021, while volume rose 2.15x, matching the usual level. The price stood at $1,898.15 at the 8:30 AM print and advanced just 0.25 percent in the next fifteen minutes and 0.45 percent after one hour; the hourly range widened only to 0.92 percent from 0.67 percent beforehand.
The three data points arrived together, yet the market registered the package as quiet. Under the 1.5x volatility threshold that Clometrix treats as no reaction, price action remained inside normal intraday bounds.
The release fell 25 days before the July Federal Open Market Committee decision, outside the two-week window that sometimes heightens sensitivity. Across the full record, Personal Income prints near policy meetings have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, little different from the 1.77x median at other times. This instance printed 1.30x, below even the non-meeting baseline.
Traders may note that when a Personal Income release lands well clear of a policy meeting, even a modest beat relative to the prior month can leave price action subdued.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,855.11Close
1,939.5924h Change
84.48 (4.36%)24h High
1,948.6024h Low
1,825.0124h Volume
719,505 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
30th June, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1897.01 | 1898.14 | 1897.00 | 1898.14 | 0.06% | 0.06% | 104 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1899.14 | 1896.51 | 1898.12 | 0.00% | 0.14% | 810 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1894.36 | 1898.37 | 1894.35 | 1898.14 | 0.20% | 0.21% | 2,105 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1904.27 | 1896.00 | 1899.54 | 0.07% | 0.43% | 5,061 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1892.58 | 1898.37 | 1891.40 | 1898.14 | 0.29% | 0.37% | 2,925 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1904.27 | 1896.00 | 1901.21 | 0.16% | 0.43% | 7,024 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1889.50 | 1898.37 | 1889.09 | 1898.14 | 0.46% | 0.49% | 4,038 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1904.27 | 1896.00 | 1902.99 | 0.25% | 0.43% | 8,243 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1891.10 | 1898.74 | 1888.24 | 1898.14 | 0.37% | 0.55% | 9,493 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1913.40 | 1896.00 | 1906.66 | 0.45% | 0.91% | 18,467 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1888.16 | 1898.74 | 1886.00 | 1898.14 | 0.53% | 0.67% | 14,089 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1913.40 | 1896.00 | 1906.61 | 0.44% | 0.91% | 30,943 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1889.40 | 1898.74 | 1885.80 | 1898.14 | 0.46% | 0.68% | 22,374 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1913.40 | 1825.01 | 1855.83 | -2.28% | 4.62% | 170,149 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1886.99 | 1898.74 | 1883.44 | 1898.14 | 0.59% | 0.81% | 48,955 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1913.40 | 1825.01 | 1863.40 | -1.86% | 4.62% | 235,141 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1877.08 | 1898.74 | 1873.50 | 1898.14 | 1.11% | 1.33% | 84,842 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1948.60 | 1825.01 | 1927.03 | 1.50% | 6.34% | 425,415 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1855.11 | 1907.99 | 1841.50 | 1886.99 | 1.69% | 3.48% | 166,824 ETH |
| During | 1886.99 | 1913.40 | 1825.01 | 1863.40 | -1.27% | 4.62% | 284,095 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1855.11 | 1907.99 | 1841.50 | 1898.14 | 2.27% | 3.48% | 215,778 ETH |
| During | 1898.15 | 1948.60 | 1825.01 | 1939.59 | 2.14% | 6.34% | 503,727 ETH |
